000
FXUS61 KOKX 220941
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
441 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the north today, however a weak low
pressure trough will be passing to the south at the same time. High
pressure then weakens on Friday as it moves offshore and another
weak area of low pressure shifts through near us. A cold front moves
through Friday night as high pressure builds to the north. A
warm front approaches Sunday, and a cold front passes late
Sunday. High pressure builds early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure center shifts through southern Quebec today with
ridging into the tri-state area today. At the same time, a weak
trough of low pressure will be shifting east along a stalled
boundary to our south. Additionally, 850-700 mb shortwave energy
will provide some lift, and with RH values in this layer remaining
high on a SW flow, it`ll be a cloudy day with some light to moderate
PCPN. Higher overall PoPs will be this afternoon, coinciding with
the deepest moisture and lift.

PCPN types across the area will be tricky across most of the area.
NAM/RAP/HRRR/RGEM continue to be on the warmer side regarding
temperatures in a warm-nose aloft at 800-700 mb while the global
models are colder. The strength of this warm nose in combination of
lower-level sub-freezing temperatures, including some freezing
surface temps late today, will have implications on PCPN types.
Prefer warmer temps aloft with the SW flow, and will lean towards
NAM in this regard, but it might be too warm aloft. High pressure to
the north and NNE surface winds will help low-level cold air
drainage/damming across CT and the Lower Hudson valley. Will
therefore lean towards NAM for lower-level temps and use its 2-meter
temps for the surface at it tends to perform better with thermal
profiles in this type of setup, especially within 24 hours.

No winter weather headlines will be issued at this time. Thinking is
that there is a limited opportunity for freezing rain today. The
chances for this would be north of the city this afternoon, however
thermal profiles would more likely be supporting sleet for these
areas during this period. Sleet accumulations expected to be limited
to under an inch. Will address the freezing rain and sleet
potential with an SPS across the northern zones. Rain is
otherwise expected elsewhere, but even a chance of sleet exists
as far south as the city, Long Island and NE NJ by late.

High temperatures for the calendar day will be from the pre-dawn
hours. Expect temperatures to fall into the 30s everywhere by early
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Models from 24 hours ago have trended drier along with stronger
ridging into the region tonight. PCPN ends early this evening with
dry weather most of the night. Another wave of low pressure passes
nearby. PCPN then spreads east to west Friday morning, with all
areas seeing PCPN during the afternoon. Thermal profiles support
rain for the most part, however western Orange County can pick up a
couple hours of freezing rain. Right now do not have the confidence
and coverage to go with an advisory, and will let subsequent shifts
assess trends and issue any as needed.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Aloft, fast westerly flow, with embedded weak shortwaves ride over
the top of the southern ridge initially. Downstream trough out west
tracks across the mid section of the country Saturday moving
southwest to northeast across the Great Lakes region. Ahead of this,
heights rise along the eastern seaboard. Trough passes early next
week with ridging Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of next trough out
west.

At the surface, models agree in a cold front sagging just south
Friday night into Saturday as high pressure builds to the north.
This will result in a brief period of dry weather later Friday night
into Saturday.

Then the front begins to move back to the north as a warm front
Saturday night into Sunday. It appears that a triple point low
tracks across the area, with occluded front to the north extending
from the parent low that tracks to the north of the Great Lakes
region. The cold front passes Sunday night.

High pressure then builds Monday through Wednesday, with perhaps a
weak trough passing late Tuesday.

Any lingering rain Friday evening ends briefly, then next round of
rain moves back in late Saturday from southwest to northeast. The
bulk of the rain occurs Saturday night through Sunday morning. Rain
tapers off later Sunday behind the triple point low and front. Warm
enough for plain rain everywhere.

Dry weather is expected thereafter.

Temperatures remain above normal, but not as warm as the past couple
of days.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak wave of low pressure tracks south of the terminals today
along a stalled cold front.

VFR conditions this morning will gradually fall to MVFR and then
likely IFR this afternoon. A few, brief showers cannot be ruled out
through sunrise before more widespread precipitation develops from
west to east through the rest of the morning and into the afternoon.

Precipitation type will be mostly rain at New York City and Long
Island terminals. There is a chance the rain could mix with some
sleet late this afternoon/early evening.

For the Lower Hudson Valley and southern Connecticut terminals, rain
will mix with sleet late this morning and early afternoon. There is
also a chance of freezing rain late this afternoon. Less than an
inch of sleet accumulation is possible.

NE winds will gust 15-20 kt today. NE winds will gradually diminish
this evening and tonight.

    ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Gusts may be more intermittent this morning.
Timing of lowering flight categories may be off by 1-2 hours.
Ceilings may stay low end MVFR this afternoon.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: Gusts may be more intermittent this morning.
Timing of lowering flight categories may be off by 1-2 hours.
Ceilings may stay low end MVFR this afternoon.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: Gusts may be more intermittent this morning.
Timing of lowering flight categories may be off by 1-2 hours.
Ceilings may stay low end MVFR this afternoon.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Gusts may be more intermittent this morning.
Timing of lowering flight categories may be off by 1-2 hours.
Ceilings may stay low end MVFR this afternoon.

KHPN TAF Comments: Timing of lower flight categories may be off by 1-
2 hours.

KISP TAF Comments: Gusts may be more intermittent this morning.
Timing of lowering flight categories may be off by 1-2 hours.
Ceilings may stay low end MVFR this afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.Late Tonight...MVFR/IFR conditions possible.
.Fri...MVFR/IFR in rain with a wintry mix at SWF.
.Sat...CHC MVFR and rain.
.Sun...MVFR/IFR in rain. S winds G20 KT.
.Mon...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA is in effect for the ocean waters this afternoon and tonight as
easterly winds gust around 25 kt while building seas up to 5-6 feet.
May need to extend it into a part of Friday morning. Rest of the
water should remain below advisory criteria through Friday.

A cold front passes across the waters Friday night, then moves back
as a warm front Sat night into Sunday. High pressure builds briefly
to the north during this time, but departs well to the east by
Sunday.

Low pressure passes Sunday, with a cold front moving through Sunday
evening. High pressure builds behind on Monday.

Tranquil winds and seas are forecast Friday night and Saturday.
Easterly winds increase Saturday night ahead of the warm front and
low pressure center. A period of SCA winds and rough ocean seas are
possible during this time. The winds shift around to the west behind
the front Sunday night and Monday. Rough ocean seas will gradually
subside.



&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Liquid equivalent precipitation amounts today are expected to range
from a quarter to half inch, with the same amounts expected for
Friday as well. Hydrologic impacts are not expected.

No hydrologic impacts are expected either this weekend, with
rainfall amounts generally ranging from a half an inch to an
inch.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) is off the
air for an extended period of time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM EST Friday for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/PW
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JC/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/PW
EQUIPMENT...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion