000
FXUS61 KOKX 240214
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1014 PM EDT Wed Oct 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the southwest through Thursday,
then remains over the region through Friday. A weak cold front
may approach the lower Hudson Valley late Friday. High pressure
on Saturday will give way to a developing low on Sunday. A cold
front may reach the area during the first half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
The forecast is on track. Minor adjustments for latest
temperatures trends. Flow aloft and in the lower levels
gradually becomes southwest through the overnight as ridging
build in from the southwest. Weak cold advection becomes neutral
then weak warm advection sets up late. This warming will not be
enough to offset the cooling in the boundary layer.

Skies will remain clear through the overnight as ridging
builds. Inland, mainly Orange county NY, patchy frost will be
likely. However, with the growing season having ended here no
advisories will be posted. Patchy frost also possible in the
Pine Barrens of eastern Long Island. Leaned toward the lower
guidance for temperatures and even undercut a few degrees in the
normally colder spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Deep southwest flow dominates Thursday through Friday as
subtropical high pressure moves into the western Atlantic as a
full amplitude trough digs from the Great Lakes into Texas. Warm
advection increases Thursday under high pressure and
temperatures will once again be above normal. Temperatures
remain above normal into Friday. Weak packets of energy move
through the upper flow Friday as a weak surface trough of cold
front develops across upstate NY. With the boundary to the north
and lift weak have kept inland areas dry through Friday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A few showers are possible Friday night with a weak system passing
just north of the area. The best chance for rain will be in the
vicinity of the low, across the northern zones. The ECMWF remains
pretty consistent with this system, while the NAM and GFS remain
fairly benign. Confidence in rain is low, and probabilities remain
at chance or lower. The models are coming into better agreement for
the weekend, so a blend was used. This brings probabilities for rain
to categorical for the event. The details still need to be ironed
out however, as the exact track will dictate where the heaviest rain
sets ups, wind direction and speed, and temperatures. For this
forecast, the consensus is for the low to track over the forecast
area, which would bring lighter winds and warmer temperatures.
However, the system is way too far out to have any confidence in
exact track. A track south of the area, as indicated by some of the
previous model runs, would have more significant impacts,
particularly with regard to coastal flooding. The storm exits Sunday
night, and the forecast was kept dry for Monday. The next chance for
rain is then with a potentially significant upper trough and
associated cold front. The GFS is much faster, resulting in a
quicker onset of rain and a quicker infiltration of the cold air.
The ECMWF is slower and not as cold. The GFS has been pretty
consistent, and is trending colder, so the forecast was nudged
towards the GFS general idea.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure builds to the south overnight and Thursday.

VFR with few if any clouds through the period. Light W-NW winds
overnight turn to the southwest Thursday morning. Speeds will
range 5-10 mph late morning and afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.Thursday night...VFR.
.Friday...VFR, Chc MVFR for mainly northern terminals at night.
.Saturday...VFR, Chc MVFR and IFR developing in rain at night.
.Sunday...MVFR and IFR conditions likely in rain.
.Monday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas have subsided to below SCA levels on the ocean
waters. High pressure builds in through Thursday, then remains
over the waters Friday. Winds and seas will remain below SCA
levels on all the forecast waters overnight through Saturday.

Winds and seas build to Small Craft Advisory levels on the
ocean Saturday night and Sunday as low pressure impacts the
area. Winds will be close to advisory levels on the remaining
waters. If the low tracks south of Long Island, gales will be
possible, especially on the ocean and eastern bays. Conditions
improve a little Monday and Tuesday, but seas may remain at or
above Small Craft Advisory levels on the ocean ahead of a slowly
approaching cold front.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry through Friday. Low pressure may produce up to 2 inches of
rain Saturday night and Sunday. Some minor urban and poor
drainage flooding will be possible if this occurs.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Low pressure and a new moon will produce minor coastal flooding
during the second half of the weekend. If the low tracks south
of Long Island, areas of moderate coastal flooding will be
possible.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is operating
at reduced power until further notice.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...19
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion