000
FXUS61 KOKX 072216
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
616 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak warm front lifts north overnight. Weak high pressure
then briefly builds across the area through Thursday. Low
pressure will then approach from the south Friday into Saturday,
followed by a series of weak fronts moving through from later
Saturday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Minor update to temperatures and dewpoints with this evening
update. Otherwise, cloud cover has so far limited any
convective development. Any showers/storms that are able to
develop will quickly come to an end this evening as daytime
heating wanes. This will lead to a generally dry overnight
period, although can`t completely rule out a stray shower as a
weak warm front lifts north and the low levels remain moist.
With plenty of cloud cover, overnight lows will only fall to
around 70 degrees.

A moderate rip current risk continues through this evening at
Atlantic Ocean beaches due to relatively long period SE swell of
3-4 ft and SE flow 15 kt.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A weak warm front lifts north of the area by Wednesday morning,
followed by a shortwave trough approaching from the west in the
afternoon. With better upper level support, shower and
thunderstorm chances will increase Wednesday morning into
Wednesday afternoon, especially for areas from New York City
north and west. Convection is then expected to diminish after
sunset as the shortwave pushes east, allowing ridging to build
in aloft for Wednesday night.

With the exception of the immediate south-facing coastlines,
temperatures on Wednesday are expected to rise into the mid to
upper 80s area wide. Combined with dewpoints around 70, this
should produce heat index values in the upper 80s to lower 90s
across much of the area, with a few locations across portions of
northeast New Jersey possibly seeing heat index values touch
the mid 90s. Overnight lows will provide little relief, only
falling into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

A moderate rip current risk is expected again on Wednesday due
to relatively long period SE-S swell of 3 ft and S flow 10-15
kt.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds briefly on Thursday. Temperatures on
Thursday are forecast to rise to the upper 80s and lower 90s.
Heat index values should reach the mid and upper 90s across the
interior and the lower 90s elsewhere. There is the potential for
some isolated to widely sct showers/tstms off higher terrain
and perhaps sea breeze boundaries anticipated in an unstable,
but capped and weakly sheared environment Thursday afternoon and
evening.

There is a moderate risk for rip current development at Atlantic
Ocean beaches on Thursday as long period southerly swell
continues.

Low pressure moves up the Mid Atlantic coast on Friday, passing
over the region Friday night into Saturday morning. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible, especially Friday afternoon and
evening likely just north east of the sfc low as it taps into a
warm conveyor belt of Gulf and subtropical Atlantic moisture.
Still low confidence on location of this heavy rain potential,
as well as potential for breezy conditions on the east side of
the low, as a potential 30-40 kt LLJ develops.

An upper-level trough and its associated cold front will move
into the area Saturday, resulting in hot and humid conditions
and the increase chance for showers and thunderstorms on
Saturday and Sunday. The cold front will move off to the east
Monday, but the upper-level trough will remain overhead bringing
a potential for diurnal convection as well as a gradual trend
to a more seasonable airmass through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weak warm front to the south of the region, will eventually
lift northward and through the area late tonight.

With the terminals north of the front this evening, it`s quite
likely IFR/MVFR ceilings prevail at least through the first
half of the night, quite possibly through daybreak. Models
soundings do show the low-levels drying out some as the night
progresses, in particular, as the flow veers more to the south.
Confidence on improvement this evening is low.

Any isolated shower or thunderstorm will be brief this evening.

ENE-SE flow of near 10 kts will become more southerly tonight
into early Wednesday while maintaining nearly the same wind
speed.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.Wednesday-Thursday...MVFR or lower possible at times during
afternoon or evening showers and thunderstorms, mainly from the
NYC metros north/west. Otherwise, VFR.
.Friday-Saturday...MVFR or lower conditions possible in
showers. Thunderstorms are possible as well. Chance E-SE gusts
20-25kt for Friday into Friday night.
.Sunday...MVFR or lower possible at times with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters through Wednesday
night with winds generally remaining below 20 kt and ocean seas
3-4 feet.

SCA seas are likely Friday and into early next week with a
persistent S/SW flow and strengthening wind fields owing to a
possible coastal low nearing the region.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A localized urban and poor drainage flooding threat exists with
any isolated thunderstorm activity through Thursday.

There is increasing potential for more widespread heavy rain
Friday into Saturday as low pressure moves up the coast. More
details as the week progresses.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing
its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion