Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Categorical Probabilistic
Categorical Day2 0700Z Outlook
  

Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion


000
ACUS02 KWNS 181700
SWODY2
SPC AC 181659

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1059 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms may develop along the Texas Coast Friday.

...Coastal TX...

Late-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave
trough over west TX/northeast Mexico. This feature will soon eject
east toward the TX coast before advancing into the lower MS Valley
by the end of the day2 period. While earlier frontal penetration,
into the Gulf of Mexico, has forced higher moisture well south of
the mainland, it appears a notable coastal front will establish
itself late tonight with a weak surface low expected to form just
east of BRO. Large-scale ascent should increase across deep-south TX
by sunrise as LLJ responds to aforementioned short wave. Forecast
soundings exhibit sufficient buoyancy for deep convection if lifting
parcels near 850mb. Have introduced thunder probabilities to coastal
portions of TX as warm advection should increase north of the
strengthening boundary where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to
steepen in response to cooling temperatures aloft. Thunder
probabilities will be highest prior to 20/00z and decrease in the
wake of mid-level trough.

..Darrow.. 01/18/2018

$$