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Day 2 Outlook Categorical Probabilistic
Categorical Day2 0700Z Outlook
  

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 Forecast Discussion


000
ACUS02 KWNS 280547
SWODY2
SPC AC 280546

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GULF
COAST STATES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE
CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM THE GULF COAST STATES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms associated with wind damage and hail will be
possible across parts of the Gulf Coast States east-northeastward
into the Carolinas on Monday. Other marginally severe thunderstorms
will be possible along the Texas coast into the lower Mississippi
Valley.

...Gulf Coast States/Georgia/Carolinas...
West-southwesterly mid-level flow will remain across the Southeast
on Monday. A moist airmass with surface dewpoints in the mid to
upper 60s F is forecast to be in place across the Gulf Coast States
east-northeastward in the Carolinas. A surface trough is forecast to
be located from south-central Alabama to the eastern Carolinas where
model forecasts develop moderate instability by afternoon. Surface
heating and enhanced low-level convergence along the surface trough
should result in scattered thunderstorm development during the mid
to late afternoon. The GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement
with the placement of the strongest instability and suggest that
MLCAPE values could reach the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition,
the two models show moderate deep-layer shear along the instability
corridor with 0-6 km shear forecast to be in the 30 to 45 kt range.
This environment should support an isolated severe threat from mid
afternoon into early evening. Isolated supercells and short bowing
line segments will be possible in areas that can heat up
sufficiently with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats.
The slight risk has been oriented along the corridor where model
consensus places the greatest combination of instability and
deep-layer shear.

...Texas Coast/Lower Mississippi Valley...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains
on Monday. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast to be in
place along the Texas coast northeastward into the lower Mississippi
Valley. Due to surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F, the
ECMWF and GFS solutions both show moderate instability already in
place across much of this corridor during the morning. These
solutions also appear to move a sea breeze front inland by midday
with convection developing along the front. In spite of the moist
airmass and instability, forecast soundings along the Texas and
Louisiana coasts suggest deep-layer shear will be relatively weak
keeping any potential for damaging wind gusts marginal.

..Broyles.. 05/28/2017

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