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Day 2 Outlook Categorical Probabilistic
Categorical Day2 1730Z Outlook
  

Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion


000
ACUS02 KWNS 131702
SWODY2
SPC AC 131701

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 AM CST Tue Nov 13 2018

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Wednesday through Wednesday night.

...Discussion...
The westerlies appear likely to trend less amplified, but cold/dry
and/or stable conditions now present across much of the nation will
be slow to modify through this period.

Models do continue to indicate that fairly significant lower/mid
tropospheric cyclogenesis may occur within a remnant southern branch
of mid-latitude westerlies, from the southern Plains through the Mid
South region by late Wednesday night.  This will occur generally
above/to the northwest of the shallow leading edge of the ongoing
low-level arctic intrusion, which is expected to advance off the
south Atlantic coast, into northern Florida, and through much of the
northern/western Gulf of Mexico by 12Z Wednesday.  However, it
appears that associated forcing will contribute to a developing
surface low across the Tennessee Valley, and a bit more prominent
surface frontal wave from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico into the
vicinity of the South Carolina coast, Wednesday through Wednesday
night.

This may be accompanied by sufficient destabilization to support a
risk for weak thunderstorm activity above the cold/stable surface
based air, mainly along the frontal zone across parts of northern
Florida and the Florida Panhandle into the piedmont and coastal
plain of the Carolinas.  However, the spread among the various model
output appears sizable concerning the extent of this potential, and
the possibility of isolated thunderstorm activity across the Florida
Peninsula.  Highest thunderstorm probabilities probably will remain
focused along the front east of the south Atlantic coast, and
perhaps across parts of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.  Across and
inland of coastal areas, the risk for severe storms still appears
negligible.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:  <2%     - None
Wind:     <5%     - None
Hail:     <5%     - None

..Kerr.. 11/13/2018

$$