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 Forecast Discussion


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ACUS03 KWNS 260732
SWODY3
SPC AC 260731

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM OKLAHOMA
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREAS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe storms remain possible on Friday from a portion of
the southern Plains into the lower to middle Mississippi, Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys.

...Southern Plains through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys...

Shortwave trough will shift northeast through the OH Valley early
Friday with upstream height rises in wake of this feature from the
southern Plains into the TN Valley. A warm front will develop
northward and by early evening should extend from the southern OH
valley into northern TX or southern OK with a dryline evolving
across west-central into northwest TX where it will intersect the
front. Limited synoptic forcing for ascent and capping due to
eastward expansion of EML may limit thunderstorm initiation during
the day over much of this region. Some chance for initiation will
exist at the intersection of dryline and front over northwest TX by
late afternoon. Large CAPE and strong vertical shear would favor a
conditional risk for supercells with very large hail and a few
tornadoes should such initiation occur. Rich low-level moisture with
large CAPE will reside south of warm/Quasistationary front. The best
chance for more widespread thunderstorm initiation will occur during
the evening into the overnight from OK into northern AR, MO and into
the TN and OH valleys along and north of the warm front as
strengthening, broad low-level jet enhances convergence and
isentropic ascent along and north of this boundary. Strong vertical
shear profiles and instability will support organized storms
including supercells with large hail and damaging wind the main
threats, though a few tornadoes may also occur with surface-based
storms developing closer to the warm front.

..Dial.. 04/26/2017

$$