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 Forecast Discussion


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ACUS03 KWNS 270726
SWODY3
SPC AC 270725

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AREA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/locally severe storms are progged across portions of the
Plains on Tuesday.  A couple of brief tornadoes may also occur in
conjunction with Alberto.

...Synopsis...
Short-wave troughing ejecting from the Rockies is expected to
continue northeastward across the central and northern Plains Day
3/Tuesday, as a second trough digs southeastward out of the
northeast Pacific toward the West Coast.

At the surface, a cold front associated with the advancing western
upper trough is forecast to shift across the northwestern portions
of the country, while a combination of ill-defined troughing and
convective outflow crosses the Plains.  Farther east, remnants of
Alberto are forecast to be crossing the Tennessee Valley area, per
latest NHC forecasts.

...Northern and central Plains area...
A complex/uncertain severe-weather forecast is evident across the
Plains, with several episodes of intervening storms to have occurred
over the region on prior days -- including likelihood for
widespread/ongoing convection Tuesday morning.  

With flow surrounding the ejecting trough likely to be somewhat
weaker Tuesday as compared to Monday, and with substantial concerns
regarding recovery of the airmass after expected/substantial
overturning, identifying corridors of potentially greater severe
risk will be largely delayed until future outlooks.

With that said, greatest potential for airmass recovery/afternoon
destabilization appears to exist over the Kansas vicinity, on the
southern portion of the expected zone of the most active/widespread
Day 2 convection.  With shear sufficient for organized storms
anticipated to exist, will highlight a small 15% risk area centered
over central Kansas, within a broad MRGL risk area extending from
the north-central states to Oklahoma.

...Mid-south/southern Appalachians region and vicinity...
Remnants of Alberto are forecast to be shifting northward
into/across the Tennessee Valley Tuesday.  While the circulation
should weaken with time, ample low-level shear will likely persist
within the northeast quadrant of the system to support a continued
risk for a couple brief tornadoes.

..Goss.. 05/27/2018

$$