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 Forecast Discussion

ACUS03 KWNS 230720
SPC AC 230719

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z


A few strong storms are possible mainly across a portion of Texas
and Oklahoma later Sunday afternoon and evening.


Positive-tilt synoptic trough will evolve across the western states
and progress slowly eastward through the Northern Rockies and Great
Basin. Downstream from this feature, at least a couple of
southern-stream impulses may affect the Southern Plains to lower
Mississippi valley. At the surface a lee cyclone will become
established over the central High Plains. Warm front will extend
southeast from this feature through the Red River area into the
Southeast States early Sunday with a trailing dryline through west
TX. The warm front will advance slowly north through OK, while the
dryline mixes east into central TX during the day before retreating

...Southern and central Plains and the middle Mississippi Valley...

Elevated storms will probably be ongoing early Sunday north of warm
front from parts of OK into Central KS. This activity will shift
northeast into the middle to lower MS Valley during the day. South
of warm front, modified continental-polar air with low to mid 60s
dewpoints will reside in the warm sector from southern OK into TX
where the atmosphere may become moderately unstable (1500-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE). Widespread low clouds and warm air at base of an elevated
mixed layer should result in at least modest convective inhibition.
Narrow corridor of clearing may occur in vicinity of dryline where
mixing and convergence might initiate isolated storms. If storms
manage to develop, strong effective bulk shear will contribute to
some supercell structures with a threat for mainly large hail. Any
storms that develop should diminish rapidly with loss of heating.
Overnight, additional storms may develop north of warm front from OK
into eastern KS and MO within zone of isentropic ascent and
destabilization associated with a strengthening low level jet. These
storms might also pose some risk for hail.

..Dial.. 03/23/2018