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Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion

ACUS03 KWNS 130810
SPC AC 130809

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 AM CST Tue Nov 13 2018

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z


Severe potential will exist across eastern North Carolina Thursday.


Early-morning water-vapor imagery suggests southern Plains upper
trough continues to dig southeast across TX. Over the next two days
this feature is forecast to eject into AR, then shift into the
middle Atlantic by 16/12z. As this feature translates into the TN
Valley, LLJ is forecast to increase atop continental air mass wedged
east of the Appalachians. This increase in warm advection is
expected to aid elevated convection north of the wind shift across
the Carolinas into southern VA. While stable boundary-layer
conditions will hold through the period across much of VA into the
Carolinas, there is some concern that cyclogenesis off the Southeast
coast will allow mT air mass to advance inland across extreme
eastern NC. Most short-range models agree warm sector will attempt
to move inland such that coastal areas will develop near-surface
based buoyancy. In addition, forecast soundings exhibit strong
deep-layer shear, with substantial veering with height, supporting
deep rotating updrafts. Will introduce 5% severe probs across
eastern NC to account for isolated supercells capable of producing
severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes.

..Darrow.. 11/13/2018