Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4 - 8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook. A depicted severe weather area indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point.
D4Wed, May 30, 2018 - Thu, May 31, 2018 D7Sat, Jun 02, 2018 - Sun, Jun 03, 2018
D5Thu, May 31, 2018 - Fri, Jun 01, 2018 D8Sun, Jun 03, 2018 - Mon, Jun 04, 2018
D6Fri, Jun 01, 2018 - Sat, Jun 02, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
  1. 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
  2. 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
  3. 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion


000
ACUS48 KWNS 270837
SWOD48
SPC AC 270835

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Latest runs of the medium-range models show decent consistency with
handling of the main large-scale features Days 4-5, but begin to
differ Day 6 (Friday) and beyond with respect to eastward
progression of a western U.S. trough across the Rockies into the
Plains.  While enough similarity appears to exist with respect to
the progression of this trough to indicate a likely increase in
severe potential across the northern and central Plains Friday (Day
6), confidence with respect to evolution is not high enough to
warrant inclusion of an areal delineation at this time.

In the shorter term, more isolated/less organized severe potential
may across the central Plains vicinity Day 4 with hints of a subtle
southern-stream disturbance moving across the area, and possibly
over the Midwest/Ohio Valley vicinity where remnants of Alberto may
potentially reside.  For Day 5/Saturday, an increase in ridging over
the central U.S. in advance of the approaching western trough
suggests any stronger storms should be limited mainly to the
northern High Plains, while modest flow aloft expected over the east
suggests mostly disorganized convection.  In all areas, Day 4-5 risk
for severe storms appears too low at this time to warrant areal
highlights/15% probability.

..Goss.. 05/27/2018