|Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook. A depicted severe weather area indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point.
|D4||Sat, Apr 29, 2017 - Sun, Apr 30, 2017
||D7||Tue, May 02, 2017 - Wed, May 03, 2017
|D5||Sun, Apr 30, 2017 - Mon, May 01, 2017
||D8||Wed, May 03, 2017 - Thu, May 04, 2017
|D6||Mon, May 01, 2017 - Tue, May 02, 2017
||(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
|PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
- 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
- 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
- 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
|POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of
organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire
period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe
storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
ACUS48 KWNS 260839
SPC AC 260837
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
Models continue to demonstrate good consistency regarding the
evolution of an upper trough expected to move through the Southern
Plains and MS Valley regions this coming weekend.
Saturday (day 4) - Shortwave trough is expected to amplify over the
southern Rockies and continue east through the southern Plains
accompanied by a strong cold front. Severe storms are expected to
develop along this boundary and progress east through TX and the
lower MS Valley where the atmosphere will be moderately to strongly
Sunday (Day 5) - As the trough and its associated cold front
progress eastward, the severe-storm threat will spread into the TN
Valley and Southeast States where favorable vertical shear will
coexist with a moderately unstable warm sector downstream from an
Monday (Day 6) - Some severe threat will persist from a portion of
the OH Valley, the Northeastern States and Carolinas as cyclone
occludes over the Great Lakes, but trailing front continues toward
the Atlantic seaboard. At this time, it remains uncertain whether
instability will be sufficient for a more robust severe event.