Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4 - 8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook. A depicted severe weather area indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point.
D4Tue, Jul 24, 2018 - Wed, Jul 25, 2018 D7Fri, Jul 27, 2018 - Sat, Jul 28, 2018
D5Wed, Jul 25, 2018 - Thu, Jul 26, 2018 D8Sat, Jul 28, 2018 - Sun, Jul 29, 2018
D6Thu, Jul 26, 2018 - Fri, Jul 27, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
  1. 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
  2. 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
  3. 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion


000
ACUS48 KWNS 210829
SWOD48
SPC AC 210827

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 AM CDT Sat Jul 21 2018

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The latest medium range guidance continues to suggest that potential
for moderate to strong boundary layer destabilization will remain
low across much of the nation through at least mid to late in the
work week.  Some amplification of upper flow centered near the
Canadian/U.S. border appears possible by late this week, including
the southward development of a short wave trough within the
mid-latitude westerlies into parts of the Upper Midwest, before it
accelerates toward Quebec and the St. Lawrence Valley.  This may be
accompanied by a fairly significant cold front, and potential for
considerable thunderstorm development posing a risk for damaging
wind gusts along and ahead of it, from parts of the Ohio Valley into
parts of the Northeast, Mid Atlantic and Southeast next Friday or
Saturday.  At this range, though, synoptic, and particularly
sub-synoptic, developments remain characterized by low
predictability, maintaining severe probabilities at less than 15
percent through this period.

..Kerr.. 07/21/2018