Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4 - 8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook. A depicted severe weather area indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point.
D4Fri, Nov 16, 2018 - Sat, Nov 17, 2018 D7Mon, Nov 19, 2018 - Tue, Nov 20, 2018
D5Sat, Nov 17, 2018 - Sun, Nov 18, 2018 D8Tue, Nov 20, 2018 - Wed, Nov 21, 2018
D6Sun, Nov 18, 2018 - Mon, Nov 19, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
  1. 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
  2. 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
  3. 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion

ACUS48 KWNS 130830
SPC AC 130828

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Tue Nov 13 2018

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

Severe potential will be very low through the upcoming medium-range

Significant surge of cP air will penetrate the northern Plains
during the day4 period then settle southeast across the CONUS east
of the Rockies. Offshore flow and stable boundary-layer conditions
will prove hostile toward convection through early next week and
severe threat will be minimal this period.

..Darrow.. 11/13/2018