Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4 - 8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook. A depicted severe weather area indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point.
D4Fri, Nov 16, 2018 - Sat, Nov 17, 2018 D7Mon, Nov 19, 2018 - Tue, Nov 20, 2018
D5Sat, Nov 17, 2018 - Sun, Nov 18, 2018 D8Tue, Nov 20, 2018 - Wed, Nov 21, 2018
D6Sun, Nov 18, 2018 - Mon, Nov 19, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
  1. 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
  2. 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
  3. 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion


000
ACUS48 KWNS 130830
SWOD48
SPC AC 130828

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Tue Nov 13 2018

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe potential will be very low through the upcoming medium-range
period.

Significant surge of cP air will penetrate the northern Plains
during the day4 period then settle southeast across the CONUS east
of the Rockies. Offshore flow and stable boundary-layer conditions
will prove hostile toward convection through early next week and
severe threat will be minimal this period.

..Darrow.. 11/13/2018