Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4 - 8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook. A depicted severe weather area indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point.
D4Mon, Mar 26, 2018 - Tue, Mar 27, 2018 D7Thu, Mar 29, 2018 - Fri, Mar 30, 2018
D5Tue, Mar 27, 2018 - Wed, Mar 28, 2018 D8Fri, Mar 30, 2018 - Sat, Mar 31, 2018
D6Wed, Mar 28, 2018 - Thu, Mar 29, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
  1. 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
  2. 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
  3. 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion

ACUS48 KWNS 230854
SPC AC 230853

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

Models, including ensemble members, remain in good agreement through
at least day 5 (Tuesday) regarding the slow eastward progression of
positive-tilt upper trough that will move from the Great Basin
region day 4 (Monday) to the southern High Plains by day 6. It still
appears that a few strong to severe storms should develop along
dryline Monday afternoon and evening in association with a
low-amplitude lead impulse. Additional storms may develop Tuesday
along a southeast-advancing cold front from OK through north central
TX and near dryline/cold front intersection over southwest TX.
Strongest storms may evolve across TX where more instability should
reside. Activity will spread east into the lower MS Valley region
where vertical shear will be favorable for organized severe storms,
but uncertainty remains regarding quality of the thermodynamic

Storms will develop east through the lower MS Valley and a portion
of the Southeast States days 6 and 7 in association with the
slow-moving upper trough. Overall setup with deep-layer winds
parallel to the front appears favorable for a slow moving squall
line with heavy rain. While vertical wind profiles will be adequate
for embedded organized storms, lingering uncertainties regarding
quality the thermodynamic environment precludes a risk area at this

..Dial.. 03/23/2018