SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Jul 19 11:04:06 UTC 2019

No watches are valid as of Fri Jul 19 11:04:06 UTC 2019.


No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jul 19 11:04:06 UTC 2019.

SPC Jul 19, 2019 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
      
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the lower Missouri
Valley eastward into the southern Great Lakes.  Damaging gusts are
the primary hazard.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the northern Great
Plains to the Great Lakes on Sunday while a cold front pushes south
across the middle MS Valley and southern Great Lakes.  A mid-level
ridge will amplify over the Rockies.

...Southern Great Lakes into the lower MO Valley...
A moisture-rich boundary layer will reside south of the
aforementioned front forecast to move through much of the area
during the period.  A cluster or two of thunderstorms may be ongoing
Sunday morning from the central Great Plains into the southern Great
Lakes.  Scattered storms will likely develop during the day on the
front and/or composite outflow from early day storms over parts of
IL/IN/Lower MI/OH by early afternoon.  With stronger mid- to
high-level flow being displaced to the north of the boundary, 0-6km
shear generally below 30kt will favor multicells.  Slightly greater
coverage of damaging gusts may exist across northern IN into Lower
MI where stronger 700-500mb flow is depicted in some of the model
guidance, but due to uncertainty at this time, will refrain from
higher probabilities.  Some of the stronger storms will be capable
primarily of a risk for damaging winds and perhaps marginal hail. 
Farther west over eastern KS/western MO, there is more uncertainty
for severe due in part to possible isolated storm development near
the front overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning.  However,
the development of 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE near the front by late
afternoon may aid in the development of a couple of strong to severe
storms.

..Smith.. 07/19/2019

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SPC Jul 19, 2019 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
      
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Models are in general agreement regarding the overall upper-air
pattern evolution during the extended period.  Early in the upcoming
work week (Monday-Tuesday), a large-scale trough will envelop much
of the Eastern Seaboard while a ridge amplifies over the Rockies.  A
cold front will move into the Mid-Atlantic states and Carolinas
during this period with diurnal thunderstorm activity.  Isolated
severe thunderstorms may occur but predictability concerns preclude
an area.  By midweek, potential for a 15-percent severe risk appears
limited.  Models are beginning to suggest a mid-level shortwave
trough will move into the north-central U.S. by next Friday.

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