Fire Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 AM CDT Sat May 25 2019

Valid 251700Z - 261200Z


The eastern extent of the elevated area across eastern NM has been
trimmed slightly based on morning surface observations, the
potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon,
and less receptive fuels across this region due to spring greenup.
No changes have been made to the critical area in central NM. See
the previous discussion below for more information.

..Gleason.. 05/25/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Sat May 25 2019/

A stationary mid-level shortwave trough will amplify across the
southwest CONUS, with stronger flow aloft overspreading the Four
Corners region into the High Plains during the day. At the surface,
lee troughing will prevail across the central High Plains, with a
dryline propagating eastward by mid-afternoon. Downslope flow
associated with boundary layer mixing, and isallobaric flow
associated with lee-troughing, will both contribute to very dry,
windy surface conditions supportive of wildfire spread potential.
Across the southeast U.S, a large scale upper-level ridge will
remain in place, that combined with surface high pressure, will
promote large scale subsidence, with negligible precipitation
accumulations, and warm/dry surface conditions. 

...New Mexico...
By mid-afternoon, widespread 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly
surface winds will be in place across much of New Mexico, coincident
with 10-15% RH, where an elevated delineation has been made. A
critical delineation has also been maintained in central New Mexico,
where confidence remains high that surface winds will exceed 20 mph
for several hours during the afternoon, atop fuels that will be at
least modestly supportive of fire spread. Otherwise, more quiescent
fire conditions may be expected during the evening hours as boundary
layer stabilization will result in calmer winds and increasing RH.

...Southern Georgia into far northern Florida, far southwest South
Carolina and far southeast Alabama...
Hot, dry conditions will prevail across the area during the
afternoon, where rainfall accumulations have been relatively absent
for several days. Fuels are beginning to become supportive of fire
spread, and with little precipitation accumulations expected in the
near future, this trend is expected to continue. The aforementioned
upper-level ridge and surface high will temper the threat for
surface winds exceeding 15 mph, which would otherwise support very
favorable conditions for wildfire spread. Nonetheless, the warm, dry
conditions, combined with 10-15 mph surface flow originating from
weak sea-breezes, may promote at least locally elevated conditions
to the region.

...Please see for graphic product...

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