Fire Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Valid 231700Z - 241200Z


...Portions of the Southern Plains...
Only change to the outlook areas is a slight eastward expansion of
elevated concerns across western Oklahoma and parts of northwest
Texas. Otherwise, critical to extremely critical conditions are
still expected from southern New Mexico to the central High Plains
today, with sustained winds around 20-35 mph and RH values around
8-15% amidst very dry fuels. Owing to these conditions, uncontrolled
fires will likely exhibit erratic behavior with rapid rates of
spread today.

...Portions of the Florida Peninsula...
Locally elevated concerns are possible over the central Peninsula
today, as sustained winds around 10 mph combine with RH values below
30%. Despite recent rainfall across parts of the region, fuels
remain dry in a few localized areas that did not realize wetting
rainfall, and these areas may observe an uptick in fire-weather

..Picca.. 03/23/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018/

An upper ridge centered over the High Plains early this morning will
erode today as a shortwave trough moves eastward from CA to the
southern Plains. A 50-75 kt west-southwesterly mid-level speed
maximum associated with this shortwave trough will overspread the
southern/central High Plains this afternoon. At the surface, a low
will develop east-southeastward from eastern CO to central KS by
this evening. A dryline extending southward from this low will mix
eastward, likely reaching the vicinity of the TX/OK border late this
afternoon. A trailing Pacific cold front attendant to the surface
low will sweep southeastward across the southern/central High Plains
this evening and overnight.

...Portions of the Southwest into the Southern/Central High
Strong/gusty west-southwesterly winds will develop behind the
eastward-mixing dryline across parts of the central and southern
High Plains later this morning and afternoon. Sustained winds of
20-35 mph will occur across this region, with the strongest winds
expected beneath the core of a mid-level jet moving over
northeastern NM, the TX/OK Panhandles, and vicinity. Higher gusts to
40-50 mph also appear likely. A dry low-level airmass is present
behind the dryline, and downslope warming/drying of this airmass
coupled with temperatures soaring into the 80s to around 90 will
support RH values becoming lowered into the 8-15% range across parts
of eastern NM/southeastern CO into southwestern KS, the TX/OK
Panhandles, west TX, and western OK. With dry to very dry fuels
present, large to extreme fire spread is anticipated given the
expected meteorological conditions.

The most favorable overlap of sustained winds around 30-35 mph,
sub-10% RH values, and ongoing severe to extreme drought remains
apparent across the extremely critical risk area, which has been
extended eastward slightly across far southwestern KS and the TX/OK
Panhandles to better align with the low-level thermal axis.
Generally minor changes have been made to the surrounding critical
area based off the forecast position of the dryline late this
afternoon. Elevated conditions will occur across parts of the
Southwest and a slightly larger portion of the southern/central High
Plains, with RH values of 15-25% and/or slightly weaker sustained
winds precluding an even larger critical area.

...Portions of the FL Peninsula...
A dry airmass will persist over much of the FL Peninsula today. With
strong diurnal heating expected, RH values will likely fall into the
20-35% range for a majority of this area. However, wind speeds are
forecast to be generally weak (less than 10 mph), which precludes
the introduction of an elevated area at this time.

...Please see for graphic product...

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z


The ongoing critical area has been focused primarily over lower
elevations of New Mexico, where fuels are likely to be more
receptive to rapid fire spread. RH values will likely be closer to
critical thresholds here as well. Additionally, the surrounding
elevated area has been expanded to include more of the lower
elevations of central New Mexico, to account for the aforementioned
distribution of fuels and favorably breezy/dry conditions.

..Picca.. 03/23/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018/

An upper trough/low will progress from the eastern Pacific to the
West Coast on Day 2/Saturday as a southern-stream shortwave trough
moves from northern Mexico to the Southwest and southern High
Plains. Enhanced mid-level southwesterly winds will persist over
much of the Southwest and central/southern High Plains through the
period, with a 50-70 kt jet at 500 mb overspreading parts of
southern AZ/NM by Saturday afternoon. A surface low initially over
MO is forecast to weaken through the day as a cold front stalls over
the southern Plains. Weak lee cyclogenesis should occur across parts
of the southern/central High Plains through Saturday evening.

...Portions of the Southwest into the Southern/Central High
Beneath the mid-level jet described above, strong/gusty
southwesterly surface winds will occur from parts of southeastern AZ
into southern/central NM Saturday afternoon. Sustained winds of
20-30 mph appear likely, with some higher gusts to 40 mph possible.
There are some indications that a modest increase in low-level
moisture and mid-level cloudiness may tend to limit the degree of
lowered RH values across this region. Therefore, the critical
delineation has been confined to locations across southeastern AZ
and southern/central NM where confidence is relatively greater that
RH values will become critically lowered, generally into the 10-15%

Farther east across the southern/central High Plains, elevated to
locally critical fire weather conditions are expected. Here,
sustained southerly to southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph should be
common in conjunction with RH values of 10-20%. The overlap of
sub-15% RH values with sustained winds in excess of 20 mph appears
too limited to justify a critical area across any portion of the
High Plains at this time.

...Please see for graphic product...

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