Fire Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN CO...WESTERN KS...FAR
SOUTHWEST NE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST NM...

...Synopsis...
One strong mid/upper-level trough will move from the northern
Rockies into the northern High Plains today, while another trough
moves into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a cyclone and
attendant trough will move eastward across the Plains. Dry and windy
conditions will overspread much of the Southwest into the southern
High Plains, resulting in a broad area of elevated to potentially
critical conditions. 

...Four Corners Region into the Southern/Central High Plains...
As low/midlevel flow increases in response to the upper trough and
associated surface low, relatively strong low-level southwesterly
flow is expected to develop from the Southwest into the High Plains.
As sustained winds increase into the 20-30 mph range this afternoon,
substantial drying/mixing will result in the development of
potentially critical RH values from northeast AZ eastward into
western KS. 

While this pattern would typically result in a widespread critical
fire weather threat from the Southwest into the southern/central
Plains, generally marginal fuel conditions should mitigate the
potential for a more substantial threat in many locations. Two
critical areas have been delineated in this outlook. The first
critical area covers portions of eastern CO, western KS, and far
southwest NE where recent rainfall has been somewhat less than
surrounding areas, and also where there is high confidence in
several hours of critical wind/RH. A second critical area has been
included across portions of northwest NM, where recent fuel guidance
suggests the presence of somewhat drier fuels. 

Surrounding the critical areas, much of the Four Corners region
eastward into northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles will also see
critical wind/RH, but no upgrade has been made in these areas due to
generally marginal fuel conditions. Locally critical conditions may
also develop further north into portions of southeast WY, the NE
Panhandle, and perhaps southwest SD, though considerable uncertainty
remains in these areas with regard to timing of the cold front and
the duration of any critical wind/RH conditions.

..Dean.. 09/19/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...Synopsis...
The large-scale upper trough over the West is expected to amplify on
Wednesday, as an embedded shortwave trough drops southeastward from
the Pacific Northwest into portions of CA/NV. Relatively dry and
windy conditions will persist over portions of the Southwest, while
weaker winds are expected over the central/southern Plains as a
strong cyclone moves away from the region. 

...Northeast AZ/Northwest NM into the Four Corners Region...
Sufficient residual low-midlevel flow and dry conditions will result
in the development of elevated to locally critical wind/RH
conditions over portions of AZ/NM into southern UT/southwest CO.
Fuels are generally not very dry across this region, though some
curing of finer fuels will have occurred on D1/Tuesday. An elevated
area has been delineated over portions of northeast AZ/northwest NM
into the Four Corners region, where the most substantial wind/RH
conditions appear likely to develop.

..Dean.. 09/19/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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