Fire Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

No changes to the ongoing forecast are necessary. See below for more
details.

..Picca.. 07/23/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0254 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017/

...Synopsis...
An upper trough off of the northern California coast is expected to
remain nearly stationary or drift slowly eastward on Monday, while a
stronger upper trough and associated surface low and cold front move
eastward across the southern Canadian prairies and the northern High
Plains. 

...Oregon/Northern California into the Great Basin/Northern Rockies
- Dry Thunderstorm Potential...
As the upper trough near the northern CA coast edges eastward and
moisture continues to slowly increase, thunderstorms are again
expected from portions of OR/northern CA into the Great Basin.
Thermodynamic profiles will again favor some dry thunderstorm
activity. While thunderstorm coverage may be sufficient for a
critical dry-thunderstorm threat across portions of the region, the
potential for locally wetting rainfall may also increase as
continued slow moistening occurs, so no upgrade has been made with
this forecast.

Further northeast into portions of ID/MT, at least isolated
thunderstorms are possible late Monday afternoon into Monday
evening. Thermodynamic profiles will favor a mix of dry/wet
thunderstorm modes, though somewhat faster storm motions (compared
to areas further southwest) will tend to limit rainfall potential to
some extent. Given the thunderstorm potential and presence of very
dry fuels, the isolated dry thunderstorm area has been extended into
portions of central MT. 

...Montana into the Western Dakotas - Elevated Wind/RH Potential...
In the wake of a cold front, somewhat cooler temperatures are
expected across portions of MT and eastern ID into the western
Dakotas compared to Sunday. However, dry westerly/northwesterly
post-frontal flow will allow for low RH (potentially down to
critical levels) to develop during the afternoon. In conjunction
with these low RH values, anticipated sustained wind speeds of 15-20
mph (with locally higher gusts) will result in the potential for
elevated to locally critical conditions. At this time, the greatest
critical potential appears to be over portions of northern MT, but
confidence is too low for an upgrade at this time. Erratic
thunderstorm outflow winds will also be possible across primarily
southern portions of the elevated area (see section above for
discussion of thunderstorm potential) during the late afternoon and
evening.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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