Fire Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 PM CST Mon Jan 21 2019

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

No changes to the outlook for this update. Some high-resolution
guidance available depicts stronger surface winds/lower RH farther
northeastward from the current elevated area. Given model
disagreement on northeastward expansion and what appears to be more
marginal fine fuels in those locations, have opted to keep the
elevated area unchanged. Please see the previous discussion for
further details.

..Wendt.. 01/21/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CST Mon Jan 21 2019/

...Synopsis...
The mid-level trough located over the Southwest will progress
eastward and become positively tilted while undergoing additional
amplification. Enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow will progress
toward the Eastern U.S., while marginally enhanced northerly
mid-level flow of 35-45 kt will overspread the Southern High Plains
in the wake of the trough. At the surface, high pressure will settle
into the Great Basin and a cold front will sweep through the
Southern Plains as low pressure moves into the Great Lakes region.

...Big Bend Region of Texas...
As the cold front progresses southward, diurnal heating should allow
marginally enhanced mid-level flow to mix with the post-frontal
airmass near the surface, resulting in afternoon sustained winds of
15-25 mph and RH values falling into the 15-20% range. The exact
placement of these post-frontal features remains somewhat uncertain,
and may require additional north/south refinement in later outlooks.
Fuels remain marginally receptive to large-fire spread across the
region, due to recent precipitation, but fire-starts are a concern
with fine fuels.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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