Fire Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 PM CST Tue Nov 13 2018

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z


No changes are needed to the previous forecast. The development of
critical fire-weather conditions appears likely, confined mostly to
the San Gabriel and San Jacinto/Laguna Mountains. Areas in between
these two mountain ranges will be quite dry, but current model
guidance still suggests winds will not be as strong as adjacent
areas.  The possibility of connecting the two critical areas will
monitored in subsequent outlooks as higher-resolution model guidance
becomes available.

..Karstens.. 11/13/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CST Tue Nov 13 2018/

With an upper-level trough in the central CONUS continuing to track
eastward, the southwest CONUS will fall under a ridge during Day 2.
While surface high pressure will also weaken with the departing of
the upper-level trough, an inverted surface trough will remain in
place cross California, maintaining a modest pressure gradient
(though not as strong as previous days). With offshore flow being
continuous across the area, low-level air is expected to remain
quite dry, with very dry fuels in place that will continue to
promote potential for fire spread/growth.

...Southern California...
With at least a moderate pressure gradient established across
California, relatively strong offshore flow will again be a concern
across the southern California Foothills, especially during the
morning hours. Latest model guidance suggests 20-30 mph sustained
east-northeasterly winds will be likely during the morning hours,
accompanied by critically low RH in two distinct areas, with the
first area being the San Gabriel Mountain vicinity and the second
being along the San Jacinto and Laguna Mountain Ranges. In addition,
localized extremely critical conditions (over 30 mph winds with the
critical RH) may occur for brief periods of time over these same
areas, but the brevity and spatially constricted nature of these
conditions precludes an extremely critical delineation. From the
afternoon to the end of the period, a gradual weakening trend in
wind speeds are expected, with elevated to critical conditions
persisting, as critically low RH and very dry fuels will continue to
support wildfire spread.

...Please see for graphic product...

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