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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 191126
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Jose, located a few hundred miles south of Nantucket, Massachusetts,
North Carolina, and on Hurricane Maria, located over the
northeastern Caribbean Sea.

A small low pressure area, the remnants of Lee, is located roughly
midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Leeward Islands.
Environmental conditions could become marginally conducive for
redevelopment of a tropical cyclone by late in the week while the
system moves northwestward to northward over the central Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)

...JOSE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS...
 As of 5:00 AM EDT Tue Sep 19
 the center of Jose was located near 36.0, -71.3
 with movement N at 9 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 971 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 56

Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017  
000
WTNT32 KNHC 190837
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number  56
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

...JOSE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.0N 71.3W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Watch Hill to Hull
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson
* New Haven to Watch Hill

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina
northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located
near latitude 36.0 North, longitude 71.3 West. Jose is moving toward
the north near 9 mph (15 km/h).  This general motion is expected to
continue through today with a turn to the northeast anticipated
tonight.  On the forecast track, the center of Jose is forecast to
pass well offshore of the Delmarva peninsula later today, pass
well to the east of the New Jersey coast on Wednesday, and pass
offshore of southeastern Massachusetts by Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is expected today but Jose
should begin to gradually weaken on Wednesday.

Jose is a large tropical cyclone.  Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-
force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
warning area early Wednesday.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area beginning tonight.

SURF:  Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
and much of the U.S. east coast.  These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several
days in these areas.  For more information, please consult products
from your local weather office.

RAINFALL:  Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1
to 3 inches over  eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut,
southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts. 3 to 5 inches
are expected for Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket and Cape Cod through
Wednesday. This rainfall could cause isolated flooding. Jose is also
expected to produce total rain accumulations less than inch along
the northern mid-Atlantic coast, and from southeast New York to
coastal Maine through Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Hurricane Jose Forecast Advisory Number 56

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017  
000
WTNT22 KNHC 190837
TCMAT2
 
HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  56
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122017
0900 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WATCH HILL TO HULL
* BLOCK ISLAND
* MARTHA'S VINEYARD
* NANTUCKET
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO PORT JEFFERSON
* NEW HAVEN TO WATCH HILL
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOSE.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N  71.3W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
50 KT.......120NE  70SE  90SW 130NW.
34 KT.......270NE 180SE 140SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N  71.3W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.6N  71.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 37.1N  71.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  25SE   0SW  40NW.
50 KT...110NE  80SE  90SW 130NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 38.5N  70.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...100NE  80SE  90SW 100NW.
34 KT...180NE 210SE 180SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 39.6N  68.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  80SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 180SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 40.0N  67.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 160SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 39.3N  66.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 140SW 180NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 38.7N  66.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 38.5N  67.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.0N  71.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 

Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 56

Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017  
000
WTNT42 KNHC 190838
TCDAT2

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number  56
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Satellite images indicate that a small area of deep convection is
persisting near the center of Jose.  While it doesn't look
particularly tropical at the moment, there is no evidence of fronts
connected to the center and the system is definitely warm core.
Thus, Jose will stay a tropical cyclone.  The initial wind speed
remains 65 kt based on the previous reconnaissance mission.
Some weakening is likely to begin within 24 hours due to Jose
moving over colder waters.  Continued weakening is in the forecast
due to the marginal water temperatures, although the system could
eventually move over the warm Gulf Stream again if it takes a
southward turn in the right spot.  Thus, the intensity forecast is
about the same as the previous one through 72 hours, then is
leveled off at 45 kt to account for the warmer water possibility.

Jose continues to move erratically northward, with the center
wobbling due to the convective bursts.  The hurricane should turn
toward the northeast and east over the next two days as it moves
around a ridge over the western Atlantic.  After that point, the
forecast becomes more uncertain, with some models curving the system
south and west under a building high over the northeastern United
States, and others drifting the cyclone eastward just out of the
reach of the ridge.  With the guidance shifting eastward on this
cycle, the official forecast will follow the trend, although not
shift as strongly to the east since it wouldn't take a very large
track error to either catch or miss that ridge.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore
of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some
direct impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm
warning is in effect for the coast of Rhode Island and a part of
the Massachusetts coast, including Cape Cod.  Any deviation to the
left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and
magnitude of impacts elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from
Delaware to southern New England.

2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to
southern New England during the next several days.  Please see
products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days
in these areas.

4. Jose will produce heavy rain over a small part of southern New
England and eastern Long Island as it passes offshore of these
locations on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total accumulations of 1 to 3
inches are expected over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut,
southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts. 3 to 5 inches
are expected for Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket and Cape Cod. This
rainfall could cause isolated flooding. Elsewhere, Jose is expected
to produce light rainfall with little risk of flooding over the
mid-Atlantic coast and the northeast states.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0900Z 36.0N  71.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 37.1N  71.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  20/0600Z 38.5N  70.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  20/1800Z 39.6N  68.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  21/0600Z 40.0N  67.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  22/0600Z 39.3N  66.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  23/0600Z 38.7N  66.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  24/0600Z 38.5N  67.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Blake

Hurricane Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 56

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017

000
FONT12 KNHC 190838
PWSAT2
                                                                    
HURRICANE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  56                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122017               
0900 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS
...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   4(13)   2(15)   1(16)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   1(10)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   3(11)   1(12)   1(13)
 
CONCORD NH     34  X   4( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)   2(12)   1(13)   1(14)
 
PORTSMOUTH NH  34  X   4( 4)   5( 9)   2(11)   3(14)   2(16)   1(17)
 
WORCESTER MA   34  1   7( 8)   5(13)   1(14)   3(17)   1(18)   2(20)
 
SPRINGFIELD MA 34  1   6( 7)   4(11)   2(13)   1(14)   2(16)   2(18)
 
BOSTON MA      34  1   8( 9)   6(15)   2(17)   3(20)   2(22)   2(24)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  4  15(19)  12(31)   4(35)   3(38)   2(40)   4(44)
HYANNIS MA     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34 10  22(32)  15(47)   2(49)   5(54)   2(56)   2(58)
NANTUCKET MA   50  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  4  10(14)   8(22)   2(24)   3(27)   2(29)   2(31)
 
BRIDGEPORT CT  34  5   6(11)   4(15)   1(16)   1(17)   2(19)   2(21)
 
NEW HAVEN CT   34  5   6(11)   4(15)   1(16)   2(18)   2(20)   1(21)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  3   6( 9)   4(13)   2(15)   2(17)   2(19)   1(20)
 
NEW LONDON CT  34  5  10(15)   5(20)   3(23)   2(25)   2(27)   1(28)
 
ALBANY NY      34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)
 
POUGHKEEPSIE   34  1   5( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   1(11)   1(12)   1(13)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  9  13(22)   7(29)   2(31)   2(33)   1(34)   3(37)
 
ISLIP NY       34  6   7(13)   5(18)   1(19)   1(20)   2(22)   2(24)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  5   6(11)   3(14)   1(15)   1(16)   2(18)   2(20)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34  5   5(10)   3(13)   1(14)   1(15)   1(16)   2(18)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  5   4( 9)   3(12)   1(13)   1(14)   1(15)   2(17)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  5   4( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)   1(13)   2(15)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  6   5(11)   3(14)   1(15)   1(16)   1(17)   2(19)
 
ALLENTOWN PA   34  2   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  5   4( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   1(12)   X(12)   2(14)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  7   5(12)   3(15)   X(15)   1(16)   1(17)   2(19)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)
 
DOVER DE       34  5   4( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)   1(12)   1(13)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  3   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  7   4(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)   1(14)   2(16)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  9   4(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)   1(16)   3(19)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  4   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   2(10)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  7   4(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   1(13)   2(15)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  5   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   2(10)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  5   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   2(10)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  5   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)   2(11)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  4   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  5   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   2( 9)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    

Hurricane Jose Graphics


Hurricane Jose 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 19 Sep 2017 08:44:24 GMT

Hurricane Jose 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 19 Sep 2017 09:24:29 GMT

Local Statement for Boston, MA

Issued at 505 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017


Local Statement for New York City, NY

Issued at 520 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017


Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)

...MARIA REGAINS CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH...
 As of 5:10 AM AST Tue Sep 19
 the center of Maria was located near 16.0, -62.3
 with movement WNW at 9 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 930 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 160 mph.

Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 13

Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017  
000
WTNT35 KNHC 190851
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MARIA HEADED FOR THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 62.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WSW OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Anguilla
* St. Lucia
* Martinique

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Anguilla
* Isla Saona to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* West of Puerto Plata to the northern Dominican Republic-Haiti
border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, the southeastern Bahamas, and
the Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor the progress of Maria.
Additional watches and warnings may be required today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.  For storm information specific to your area
outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your
national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 62.3 West.  Maria is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Wednesday.  On the forecast
track, the eye of Maria will move over the northeastern Caribbean
Sea today, and approach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight
and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Maria is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or two, but Maria is forecast to remain an
extremely dangerous category 4 or 5 hurricane while it approaches
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.  An Air Force Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is currently investigating Maria.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions will continue to spread throughout
portions of the hurricane warning area in the Leeward Islands this
morning.  Hurricane conditions should spread through the remainder
of the Hurricane Warning area later today and Wednesday.  Hurricane
conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area in the
Dominican Republic late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions
possible by early Wednesday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible
in the Tropical Storm Watch area in St. Vincent and the Grenadines
this morning, and are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in
the Dominican Republic on Wednesday.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
could be much stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this
advisory.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 7 to 11
feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area near
where the center of Maria moves across the Leeward Islands and the
British Virgin Islands.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is expected to reach
the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands...6 to 9 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Thursday:

Central and southern Leeward Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
inches.
U.S. and British Virgin Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
inches.
Puerto Rico...12 to 18 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 10 inches.
Windward Islands and Barbados...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
Eastern Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

Rainfall on all of these islands will cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Lesser Antilles.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 13

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017  
000
WTNT25 KNHC 190850
TCMAT5

HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
0900 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* DOMINICA
* ST. KITTS... NEVIS... AND MONTSERRAT
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO... CULEBRA... AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ANGUILLA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* ANGUILLA
* ISLA SAONA TO PUERTO PLATA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* WEST OF PUERTO PLATA TO THE NORTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA... THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N  62.3W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  934 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE  70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N  62.3W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N  61.9W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.7N  63.4W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.6N  64.8W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.5N  66.3W...NEAR NORTH COAST PUERTO RICO
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.3N  67.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.2N  70.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 23.7N  71.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 26.5N  72.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N  62.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 13

Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017  
000
WTNT45 KNHC 190853
TCDAT5

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

Interaction of the small core of Maria with the mountainous terrain
of Dominica caused only a slight diminution of the intensity of
the hurricane.  Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft
after the center passed the island indicate an intensity of about
135 kt, at the high end of category 4 strength.  Another Air Force
aircraft has begun investigating Maria, and preliminary data
from the plane suggest that the hurricane may have regained
category 5 intensity.  Maria will be moving through a low-shear
atmospheric environment and mainly over warm waters for the next
couple of days.  Some fluctuations in intensity are possible in the
early part of the forecast period due to eyewall replacement events.
Land influences could cause some weakening within the next 36
hours.  Later in the forecast period, a modest increase in vertical
shear could cause some weakening.  The official intensity forecast
is near or above the latest model consensus.

After smoothing out the trochoidal wobbles of Maria's eye, the
initial motion estimate remains west-northwestward, or 300/8 kt.
There is little change to the track forecast reasoning from the
previous advisory package.  A weak ridge situated over the western
Atlantic is expected to steer Maria west-northwestward through 48
hours, and on this track the center of the hurricane is forecast to
pass near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday.
After that time, the western portion of the ridge is forecast to
weaken, partially due to the influence of the large circulation of
Hurricane Jose.  This should cause Maria to turn northwestward, then
north-northwestward by day 4-5.  There is fairly good agreement
amongst the reliable guidance, and the new official track forecast
is very similar to the previous one.  This is generally near the
left side of the envelope of model tracks, and favors the ECMWF and
the corrected consensus predictions.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands as an
extremely dangerous major hurricane during the next day or so.

2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane tonight
and Wednesday.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

3. A life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by large and
destructive waves, is expected for the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and
British  Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall
are expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and
the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0900Z 16.0N  62.3W  135 KT 155 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 16.7N  63.4W  140 KT 160 MPH
 24H  20/0600Z 17.6N  64.8W  135 KT 155 MPH
 36H  20/1800Z 18.5N  66.3W  125 KT 145 MPH...NEAR PUERTO RICO
 48H  21/0600Z 19.3N  67.8W  125 KT 145 MPH
 72H  22/0600Z 21.2N  70.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
 96H  23/0600Z 23.7N  71.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  24/0600Z 26.5N  72.5W  100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017

000
FONT15 KNHC 190852
PWSAT5
                                                                    
HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017               
0900 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
135 KTS...155 MPH...250 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   8(21)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  25(29)  13(42)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   7(17)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  23(24)  32(56)   6(62)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  23(28)   5(33)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   3(19)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  63(69)  15(84)   2(86)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  37(37)  23(60)   1(61)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)  21(40)   1(41)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   1(10)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)  13(16)   5(21)   1(22)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   8(13)   2(15)   1(16)
CAPE BEATA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
CAPE BEATA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)  49(65)   6(71)   X(71)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  32(34)   5(39)   1(40)
PUERTO PLATA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)   4(23)   X(23)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)  26(32)  24(56)   3(59)   X(59)
SANTO DOMINGO  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  14(21)   X(21)   X(21)
SANTO DOMINGO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
PONCE PR       34  2  37(39)  53(92)   3(95)   1(96)   X(96)   X(96)
PONCE PR       50  X   5( 5)  58(63)   8(71)   1(72)   X(72)   X(72)
PONCE PR       64  X   1( 1)  36(37)  11(48)   1(49)   X(49)   X(49)
 
AGUADILLA PR   34  1  11(12)  71(83)  12(95)   X(95)   1(96)   X(96)
AGUADILLA PR   50  X   1( 1)  44(45)  28(73)   3(76)   X(76)   X(76)
AGUADILLA PR   64  X   X( X)  24(24)  28(52)   3(55)   X(55)   X(55)
 
SAN JUAN PR    34  2  63(65)  33(98)   1(99)   X(99)   1(99)   X(99)
SAN JUAN PR    50  X  12(12)  75(87)   5(92)   1(93)   X(93)   X(93)
SAN JUAN PR    64  X   2( 2)  64(66)   9(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
 
VIEQUES PR     34  3  91(94)   6(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
VIEQUES PR     50  1  53(54)  40(94)   1(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
VIEQUES PR     64  X  20(20)  59(79)   1(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  7  90(97)   2(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAINT THOMAS   50  1  62(63)  22(85)   1(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)
SAINT THOMAS   64  X  24(24)  29(53)   X(53)   1(54)   X(54)   X(54)
 
SAINT CROIX    34 37  63(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAINT CROIX    50  2  90(92)   5(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
SAINT CROIX    64  X  70(70)  13(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34 80  12(92)   1(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  5  11(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
SAINT MAARTEN  64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 47   2(49)   1(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64  7   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
BARBUDA        34 71   1(72)   X(72)   1(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)
 
ANTIGUA        34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ANTIGUA        50  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GUADELOUPE     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GUADELOUPE     50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
AVES           34 92   X(92)   1(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
AVES           50 12   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
AVES           64  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
DOMINICA       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
DOMINICA       50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
MARTINIQUE     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    

Hurricane Maria Update Statement

Issued at 510 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017  
000
WTNT65 KNHC 190906
TCUAT5

Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
510 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

...MARIA REGAINS CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH...

Recent reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that Maria has reintensified to category 5
status, with estimated maximum sustained winds of 160 mph (260
km/h).

SUMMARY OF 510 AM AST...0910 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 62.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WSW OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.46 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane Maria Graphics


Hurricane Maria 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 19 Sep 2017 08:56:40 GMT

Hurricane Maria 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 19 Sep 2017 09:31:09 GMT

Local Statement for Puerto Rico / V.I.

Issued at 540 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017


Local Statement for Puerto Rico / V.I.

Issued at 0


    

 

Eastern Pacific


Graphical outlook

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 190516
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 18 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Norma, located a couple of hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Storm
Otis, located more than 1000 miles west of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure is expected to form toward the end of the
week south of southeastern Mexico. Some subsequent development is
possible as the system moves slowly west-northwestward near the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Summary for Tropical Depression Norma (EP2/EP172017)

...NORMA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...
 As of 3:00 AM MDT Tue Sep 19
 the center of Norma was located near 21.6, -113.9
 with movement W at 6 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Norma Public Advisory Number 20

Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Sep 19 2017  
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 190832
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Norma Advisory Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172017
300 AM MDT Tue Sep 19 2017

...NORMA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 113.9W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Norma
was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 113.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue today with a gradual turn to
the northwest thereafter.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Further weakening is forecast, and Norma is expected to degenerate
into a remnant low on Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur and will continue
today.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Tropical Depression Norma Forecast Advisory Number 20

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017  
000
WTPZ22 KNHC 190832
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172017
0900 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 113.9W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 113.9W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 113.6W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 21.7N 114.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 22.1N 115.6W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 22.6N 116.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 113.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS


Tropical Depression Norma Forecast Discussion Number 20

Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Sep 19 2017  
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 190833
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Norma Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172017
300 AM MDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Conventional satellite imagery shows continued deterioration of
Norma's cloud pattern this evening.  All that remains of the
associated deep convection is fragments in the northeast quadrant.
A 0518 UTC ASCAT-B overpass indicated winds of only 30 kt in the
north and east portions of the cyclone.  Therefore, Norma is
downgraded to a depression for this advisory.  Norma is forecast to
further weaken while traversing decreasing oceanic temperatures.  An
intruding drier and more stable marine layer will also contribute to
Norma's demise.  The official forecast is just an update of the
previous one and shows Norma becoming a remnant low in 36 hours and
dissipating in 2 days.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or
280/5 kt.  Norma is expected to move west during the next 24 hours,
within the southwestern peripheral mid-tropospheric flow of a
subtropical ridge extending westward from northern Mexico over the
eastern Pacific.  Afterward, the cyclone is forecast to gradually
turn northwestward as a remnant low.  The NHC forecast is just a bit
south of the previous package due to the position adjustment based
on the scatterometer data, and is nudged toward the HFIP Corrected
Consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0900Z 21.6N 113.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 21.7N 114.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  20/0600Z 22.1N 115.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  20/1800Z 22.6N 116.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Tropical Depression Norma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017

000
FOPZ12 KNHC 190833
PWSEP2
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  20       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172017               
0900 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMA WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ROBERTS                                                  

Tropical Depression Norma Graphics


Tropical Depression Norma 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 19 Sep 2017 08:45:06 GMT

Tropical Depression Norma 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 19 Sep 2017 09:43:48 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm Otis (EP5/EP152017)

...OTIS MAINTAINING TROPICAL STORM STATUS...
 As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Sep 19
 the center of Otis was located near 19.0, -127.9
 with movement WSW at 3 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Otis Public Advisory Number 31

Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 19 2017  
000
WTPZ35 KNHC 190834
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Otis Advisory Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017
200 AM PDT Tue Sep 19 2017

...OTIS MAINTAINING TROPICAL STORM STATUS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 127.9W
ABOUT 1190 MI...1915 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Otis was
located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 127.9 West. Otis is
moving toward the west-southwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), and a turn
toward the southwest is anticipated by early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Otis is likely to dissipate within 36
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Tropical Storm Otis Forecast Advisory Number 31

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017  
000
WTPZ25 KNHC 190834
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152017
0900 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 127.9W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 127.9W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 127.7W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.6N 128.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.9N 129.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 127.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS


Tropical Storm Otis Forecast Discussion Number 31

Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 19 2017  
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 190834
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Otis Discussion Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017
200 AM PDT Tue Sep 19 2017

There has been very little change in Otis' cloud structure during
the past several hours.  The modest southerly shear and dominant
surrounding stable air mass continue to inhibit convective
development around the circulation center, other than in the
northern portion.  A 0518 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass, however,
still indicated winds of tropical-storm-force in the aforementioned
convective mass.  Subsequently, the initial intensity is held at 35
kt.  Weakening is again forecast and the global models agree with
Otis becoming a remnant low during the next day or so, and
dissipation during the next couple of days.

The initial motion is estimated to be basically a drift
west-southwestward.  Within the next 12 hours, Otis is forecast to
be steered southwestward by a mid-level ridge situated over the
central Pacific, and this motion is expected to continue until
Otis dissipates.  The official forecast has changed little from
the previous one, and remains near the multi-model consensus
guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0900Z 19.0N 127.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 18.6N 128.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  20/0600Z 17.9N 129.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Tropical Storm Otis Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017

000
FOPZ15 KNHC 190834
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM OTIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  31             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152017               
0900 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ROBERTS                                                  

Tropical Storm Otis Graphics


Tropical Storm Otis 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 19 Sep 2017 08:38:37 GMT

Tropical Storm Otis 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 19 Sep 2017 09:37:20 GMT