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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


541
ABNT20 KNHC 241141
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Kirk, located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands, and on Subtropical Storm Leslie located more
than 1000 miles west of the Azores.

A broad area of low pressure located about midway between Bermuda
and the Bahamas continues to produce a limited amount of shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to
become slightly more conducive for development during the next
day or so while the system moves west-northwestward to
northwestward. By Tuesday night and Wednesday, upper-level winds
are expected to increase, limiting the chances for additional
development, while the system moves northward near the southeastern
United States coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form north of
Subtropical Storm Leslie along a cold front over the central
Atlantic by Wednesday. Leslie and the non-tropical low are expected
to merge over the central Atlantic, where conditions appear
conducive for the low to acquire tropical or subtropical
characteristics by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Leslie are issued under WMO header WTNT33
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on
Leslie are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS
header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Summary for Tropical Depression Kirk (AT2/AL122018)

...KIRK MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...
 As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 24
 the center of Kirk was located near 9.5, -37.4
 with movement W at 24 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Kirk Public Advisory Number 8

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018  
428 
WTNT32 KNHC 240832
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Kirk Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018
500 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018

...KIRK MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.5N 37.4W
ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1615 MI...2600 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Kirk was
located near latitude 9.5 North, longitude 37.4 West. The depression
is moving toward the west near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this fast
motion is expected to continue for another day or so.  A decrease in
forward speed is expected by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Although slight strengthening is forecast during the next
few days, it is possible that Kirk could degenerate into a
trough of low pressure during the next day or two while it moves
quickly across the tropical central Atlantic.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Tropical Depression Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 8

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 24 2018  
429 
WTNT22 KNHC 240832
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122018
0900 UTC MON SEP 24 2018
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.5N  37.4W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  21 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.5N  37.4W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  9.4N  36.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z  9.9N  40.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 10.2N  44.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 10.5N  48.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 10.9N  51.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 12.1N  57.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 13.2N  61.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 14.0N  66.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  9.5N  37.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
 

Tropical Depression Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 8

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018  
632 
WTNT42 KNHC 240833
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Kirk Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018
500 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018

After having a minimal amount of deep convection late yesterday,
Kirk is now producing some thunderstorm activity in fragmented bands
around the estimated center.  However, earlier ASCAT data and low
cloud motion suggest that the circulation resembles a sharp trough
instead of a closed low that is necessary for a tropical cyclone.
Hopefully more visible satellite images and additional scatterometer
data will help better assess the circulation and status of Kirk.
For now, advisories are being maintained on the system, and the
initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data
and a blend of the Dvorak estimates.

Kirk is moving very quickly to the west at about 21 kt, which is
likely the reason why the system has been struggling.  A continued
westward motion but at a decreasing forward speed is expected during
the next two to three days while the cyclone remains on the south
side of a low- to mid-level ridge.  After that time, a large
deep-layer low pressure system over the central Atlantic should
cause Kirk to gain more latitude.  The NHC track forecast is largely
an update of the previous one, and remains near the southern side of
the guidance envelope near the GFS and ECMWF models.  This forecast
takes Kirk toward the Lesser Antilles in 3 to 4 days and interests
there should monitor the progress of this system.

Although Kirk will be moving over warmer SSTs and remain in
relatively moist conditions, its fast forward speed will likely
limit the system from strengthening significantly during the next
few days, so only a little intensification is predicted.  The global
models show a notable increase in westerly shear when Kirk reaches
the eastern Caribbean Sea in about 4 days, and that should cause
weakening and possibly even dissipation by the end of the forecast
period.  The NHC intensity forecast lies near the lower side of the
guidance envelope, in best agreement with the NOAA HCCA model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z  9.5N  37.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z  9.9N  40.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 10.2N  44.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 10.5N  48.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 10.9N  51.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  27/0600Z 12.1N  57.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  28/0600Z 13.2N  61.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  29/0600Z 14.0N  66.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Tropical Depression Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 24 2018

473 
FONT12 KNHC 240832
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8        
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122018               
0900 UTC MON SEP 24 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 9.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED     
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
AVES           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   3(11)
 
SAINT VINCENT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   4(12)
 
BARBADOS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)   2(14)
 
GRENADA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)
 
TRINIDADTOBAGO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)
 
PORT OF SPAIN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
JUANGRIEGO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               

Tropical Depression Kirk Graphics


Tropical Depression Kirk 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Sep 2018 08:34:38 GMT

Tropical Depression Kirk 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Sep 2018 09:22:03 GMT

Summary for Subtropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)

...LESLIE CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
 As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 24
 the center of Leslie was located near 32.6, -48.6
 with movement S at 6 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Subtropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 4

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018  
105 
WTNT33 KNHC 240831
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
500 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018

...LESLIE CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.6N 48.6W
ABOUT 1270 MI...2045 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 48.6 West. The storm is
moving toward the south near 6 mph (9 km/h), and little motion is
expected today. An eastward motion at a faster forward speed is
forecast tonight and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or
so, but Leslie is forecast to strengthen when it merges with a
frontal system in two to three days.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Subtropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 4

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 24 2018  
104 
WTNT23 KNHC 240831
TCMAT3

SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132018
0900 UTC MON SEP 24 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N  48.6W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE   0SE   0SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE   0SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N  48.6W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.8N  48.7W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 32.6N  48.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE   0SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 32.6N  46.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE   0SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 32.5N  44.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE   0SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 32.7N  42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE   0SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N  48.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



Subtropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 4

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018  
385 
WTNT43 KNHC 240832
TCDAT3

Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
500 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018

Leslie has changed little overnight.  The large subtropical cyclone
continues to produce patches of deep convection, mostly to the south
and east of the center.  The initial intensity is again held at 35
kt, which is near the upper end of the satellite intensity
estimates.

The subtropical storm is moving southward at 5 kt.  The steering
currents around Leslie are expected to collapse later today and
little overall motion is forecast during the next 12-18 hours.
After that time, a cold front is expected to approach the system,
and that should cause Leslie to move eastward tonight and Tuesday.
The front is expected to merge with Leslie by Tuesday night, causing
it to become extratropical.  While little change in intensity is
expected during the next day or so, due to dry air and moderate
shear, some strengthening as an extratropical low is likely due to
baroclinic forcing.  In fact, after becoming extratropical, the
models show Leslie merging with another frontal low to its north,
leading to the formation of a powerful slow-moving non-tropical low
with gale- or storm-force winds over the central Atlantic later this
week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 32.6N  48.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 32.6N  48.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 32.6N  46.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 32.5N  44.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 32.7N  42.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  27/0600Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Subtropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 24 2018

021 
FONT13 KNHC 240831
PWSAT3
                                                                    
SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4        
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132018               
0900 UTC MON SEP 24 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               

Subtropical Storm Leslie Graphics


Subtropical Storm Leslie 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Sep 2018 08:33:27 GMT

Subtropical Storm Leslie 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Sep 2018 09:28:09 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific


Graphical outlook

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


505
ABPZ20 KNHC 241140
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Sep 24 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a little over 300 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico,
continue to become better organized. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form within the next couple days while the system moves
west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form over the far western
portion of the eastern North Pacific basin in a couple of days.
Some gradual development of this system is possible after that time
while it moves westward toward the central Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 24 Sep 2018 12:07:24 GMT