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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean


Graphical outlook

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 240509
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 24 Jul 2017 06:05:38 GMT


    

 

Eastern Pacific


Graphical outlook

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 240509
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Jul 23 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Greg, located more than a thousand miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, on Tropical Storm
Hilary, located several hundred miles south of Manzanillo Mexico,
and on Tropical Storm Irwin, located several hundred miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Summary for Tropical Storm Greg (EP2/EP072017)

...GREG HOLDING STEADY WITH 50-MPH WINDS...
 As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Jul 23
 the center of Greg was located near 14.4, -131.4
 with movement W at 14 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Greg Public Advisory Number 27

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Jul 23 2017  

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 240256
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Greg Advisory Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017
800 PM PDT Sun Jul 23 2017

...GREG HOLDING STEADY WITH 50-MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 131.4W
ABOUT 1520 MI...2450 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Greg was
located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 131.4 West. Greg is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Monday.  A turn toward the
west-northwest at a slower forward speed is expected Monday night
and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast through Monday, but some
weakening is likely Monday night and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Greg Forecast Advisory Number 27

Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 24 2017  

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 240255
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072017
0300 UTC MON JUL 24 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 131.4W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE  30SE  30SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 131.4W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 130.8W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.6N 132.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.0N 134.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.6N 136.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.4N 137.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.0N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 16.9N 143.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 16.1N 146.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 131.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Tropical Storm Greg Forecast Discussion Number 27

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Jul 23 2017  

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 240257
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Greg Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017
800 PM PDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Greg has changed little since the previous advisory, with the
cyclone still producing intermittent bursts of deep convection near
the center. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates
remain at T3.0/45 kt, so the initial intensity will remain
unchanged at 45 kt for this advisory.

Greg's initial motion estimate is 275/12 kt. No significant changes
to the previous forecast track were required through 72 hours. Greg
is expected to continue moving west-northwestward to westward for
the next 3 days while it skirts along the southern periphery of a
deep-layer subtropical ridge centered northeast of the Hawaiian
Islands. The small cyclone is forecast to weaken to a remnant low
around 72 hours, with the shallow system being forced
west-southwestward by brisk northeasterly tradewind flow. The new
NHC forecast track closely follows the TVCN consensus model.

Little change in strength is expected for the next 24 hours or so.
Gradual weakening is expected thereafter due to drier and more
stable air getting entrained into the cyclone, followed by
increasing vertical wind shear. By 72 hours and beyond, the shear is
expected to exceed 25-30 kt, which should result in Greg
degenerating into a remnant low. The new intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the intensity
consensus model ICON and IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 14.4N 131.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 14.6N 132.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 15.0N 134.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 15.6N 136.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 16.4N 137.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 17.0N 140.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  28/0000Z 16.9N 143.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/0000Z 16.1N 146.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Greg Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27

Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 24 2017


000
FOPZ12 KNHC 240257
PWSEP2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM GREG WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  27             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072017               
0300 UTC MON JUL 24 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GREG WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 130W       34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
15N 135W       34  4  55(59)   8(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)
15N 135W       50  X  14(14)   8(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
15N 135W       64  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
15N 140W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   6( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
20N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
15N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  

Tropical Storm Greg Graphics


Tropical Storm Greg 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Jul 2017 03:02:45 GMT

Tropical Storm Greg 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Jul 2017 03:23:36 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm Hilary (EP4/EP092017)

...HILARY RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING... ...PRIMED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TUESDAY...
 As of 10:00 PM CDT Sun Jul 23
 the center of Hilary was located near 13.6, -103.5
 with movement WNW at 9 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 997 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Tropical Storm Hilary Public Advisory Number 11

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017  

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 240247
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hilary Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017
1000 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

...HILARY RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...
...PRIMED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 103.5W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilary was
located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 103.5 West.  Hilary is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours. Hilary is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday
and a major hurricane by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Hilary Forecast Advisory Number 11

Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 24 2017  

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 240247
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092017
0300 UTC MON JUL 24 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 103.5W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 103.5W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 103.2W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.0N 104.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.7N 106.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.4N 107.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.1N 109.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.2N 113.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 18.3N 117.1W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 19.2N 120.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 103.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Tropical Storm Hilary Forecast Discussion Number 11

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017  

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 240250
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017
1000 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Hilary has continued to become better organized with a curved
convective band now wrapping nearly all the way around the
low-level center, and a banding eye of about 10 n mi in diameter
evident in recent SSMI/S microwave satellite data. The intensity
estimate was 55 kt by TAFB at 0000Z, but since the overall
convective and inner-core patterns have improved during the past few
hours, the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt for this
advisory.

The initial motion estimate is 300/08 kt. There is no significant
change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Hilary is
expected to move west-northwestward along the southern periphery of
a deep-layer ridge to its north for the next several days, with a
slight increase in forward speed expected in about 48 hours or so.
The new model guidance is tightly packed around the previous
NHC advisory track through 96 h, so the new forecast track is just
an update of the previous one, and closely follows the HCCA and
TVCN models.

Given the improving inner-core structure, coupled with very low
vertical shear values and a moist unstable environment, continued
rapid intensification appears likely for the next 36-48 hours while
the small cyclone remains over SSTs greater than 28C. By 72 hours,
SSTs cool to near 27C and the upper-ocean heat content decreases to
less than 10 units, suggesting that cold upwelling will probably
begin around that time. The new intensity forecast follows the
previous advisory by showing rapid strengthening of about 15 kt
every 12 hours for the next 36 hours, followed by a slightly slower
rate of strengthening since an eyewall replacement cycle could begin
in the 36-48 h period. After that, increasing shear and cooler
water temperatures should induce gradual weakening. The official
intensity forecast is similar to the corrected-consensus model HCCA,
which brings Hilary to a 116-kt, category-4 hurricane in 48 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 13.6N 103.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 14.0N 104.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 14.7N 106.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 15.4N 107.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 16.1N 109.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 17.2N 113.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  28/0000Z 18.3N 117.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  29/0000Z 19.2N 120.8W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Hilary Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 24 2017


000
FOPZ14 KNHC 240247
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092017               
0300 UTC MON JUL 24 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 105W       34 51  41(92)   1(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
15N 105W       50  1  40(41)   1(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
15N 105W       64  X  18(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
15N 110W       34  X   1( 1)  13(14)  48(62)   7(69)   X(69)   X(69)
15N 110W       50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  23(25)   8(33)   X(33)   X(33)
15N 110W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   6(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
20N 110W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   9(14)   2(16)   X(16)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  35(46)   2(48)   X(48)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   X(13)   X(13)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  43(44)  30(74)   2(76)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)  30(43)   2(45)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  19(25)   1(26)
 
15N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)  12(31)   2(33)
15N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   1(10)
15N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
 
20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)  29(44)   4(48)
20N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  14(17)   2(19)
20N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   1( 9)
 
25N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
15N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   8(15)
15N 120W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
15N 120W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
20N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)  29(44)
20N 120W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  14(17)
20N 120W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
 
25N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
15N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)
20N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
25N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  

Tropical Storm Hilary Graphics


Tropical Storm Hilary 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Jul 2017 02:55:17 GMT

Tropical Storm Hilary 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Jul 2017 03:32:00 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm Irwin (EP5/EP102017)

...IRWIN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...
 As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Jul 23
 the center of Irwin was located near 14.9, -117.3
 with movement W at 8 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Irwin Public Advisory Number 7

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Jul 23 2017  

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 240231
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Irwin Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017
800 PM PDT Sun Jul 23 2017

...IRWIN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 117.3W
ABOUT 735 MI...1180 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irwin was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 117.3 West. Irwin is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this heading with a
decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of
days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during
the next 48 hours, and Irwin is forecast to become a hurricane by
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Advisory Number 7

Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 24 2017  

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 240231
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102017
0300 UTC MON JUL 24 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 117.3W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE  30SE  20SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 117.3W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 117.0W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.8N 118.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.8N 118.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 14.8N 119.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 14.7N 120.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 14.2N 122.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 14.0N 124.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 14.5N 124.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 117.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 7

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Jul 23 2017  

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 240232
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017
800 PM PDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Irwin is gradually gaining strength.  Deep convection has increased
over the center during the past several hours, and the cloud pattern
now consists of a central dense overcast with fragmented curved
bands over the southern portion of the circulation.  The Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB were both 3.0/45 kt, and the
initial wind speed is increased to that value.  This intensity
estimate is also in agreement with an ASCAT-A pass from around 1800
UTC that showed maximum winds in the 40-45 kt range.

Irwin is moving westward at 7 kt to the south of a relatively weak
low- to mid-level ridge.  This ridge is expected to guide Irwin
slowly westward during the next few days.  After that time,
the forecast track becomes much more uncertain as the path of Irwin
depends upon the degree of interaction it has with Hilary to its
east.  The global models all show Irwin slowing down significantly
in a few days and then moving north or northeast as it becomes
embedded in the circulation of Hilary.  Conversely, the hurricane
regional models HWRF, HMON, and COAMPS-TC show Irwin continuing
generally westward. The NHC track forecast has been shifted a little
to the north and west at days 4 and 5, but continues to lie to the
east of the consensus aids favoring the global model solutions.

The tropical storm is located in an environment of moderate shear,
relatively moist conditions, and over 28 degree C water.  These
conditions are expected to change little during the next couple of
days, and should allow for gradual intensification.  Beyond that
time, an increase in wind shear associated with the outflow of
Hilary would likely cause Irwin to weaken some.  The NHC intensity
forecast is a little higher than the previous one, trending closer
to the latest consensus models HCCA and IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 14.9N 117.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 14.8N 118.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 14.8N 118.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 14.8N 119.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 14.7N 120.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 14.2N 122.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  28/0000Z 14.0N 124.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  29/0000Z 14.5N 124.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Storm Irwin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 24 2017


000
FOPZ15 KNHC 240232
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102017               
0300 UTC MON JUL 24 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 115W       34  2   2( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)
 
10N 120W       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   2(10)
 
15N 120W       34  4  37(41)  39(80)  12(92)   1(93)   1(94)   X(94)
15N 120W       50  X   5( 5)  33(38)  23(61)   4(65)   X(65)   X(65)
15N 120W       64  X   1( 1)  11(12)  14(26)   3(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 
20N 120W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
 
10N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   6(12)
 
15N 125W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  19(23)  19(42)   8(50)
15N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   4(14)
15N 125W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
 
20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)
 
15N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               

Tropical Storm Irwin Graphics


Tropical Storm Irwin 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Jul 2017 02:37:51 GMT

Tropical Storm Irwin 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Jul 2017 03:39:47 GMT