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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 221721
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located several hundred miles south-southwest of
Bermuda, and on Tropical Storm Karen, located just west of the
southern Windward Islands.

Satellite imagery indicates that a broad area of low pressure has
formed in association with a strong tropical wave over the far
eastern Atlantic. The associated thunderstorm activity continues
to show signs of organization, and a tropical depression or
tropical storm is expected to form later today or tonight while
the system moves generally westward over the eastern tropical
Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should
monitor the progress of this disturbance. Regardless of development,
this system is likely to bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty
winds to portions of the southern Cabo Verde Islands during the
next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Karen are issued under WMO
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Karen are issued under
WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Summary for Tropical Storm Karen (AT2/AL122019)

...GUSTY WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...
 As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 22
 the center of Karen was located near 12.9, -62.7
 with movement WNW at 13 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Karen Public Advisory Number 3

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019  
000
WTNT32 KNHC 222036
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
500 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

...GUSTY WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 62.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NW OF GRENADA
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 62.7 West. Karen is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A turn
toward the northwest is forecast to occur later tonight or on
Monday, followed by a turn toward the north on Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Karen will continue to move away from
the Windward Islands this evening, and then move across the eastern
Caribbean Sea tonight and Monday.  On Tuesday, Karen is expected to
pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through this evening.  Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area beginning Tuesday morning.

RAINFALL:  Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Windward Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches.
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.
Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.
Far northeast Venezuela and Barbados...1 to 3 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Advisory Number 3

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019  
000
WTNT22 KNHC 222036
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122019
2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KAREN.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N  62.7W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N  62.7W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N  62.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 13.7N  63.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.9N  64.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.3N  65.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.0N  65.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.5N  65.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE   0SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 24.3N  65.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 26.0N  66.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N  62.7W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 23/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 

Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Discussion Number 3

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019  
ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
500 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

The convective structure of Karen has continued to lose organization
this afternoon, with the center becoming exposed to the north and
northwest of the primary convective band.  An Air Force
Reconnaissance aircraft investigating the storm has found a
well-defined circulation, and flight-level and SFMR winds to
support an intensity of around 30 kt.  The plane, however, has
not fully sampled the storm so the initial intensity remains
35 kt which is between the wind speeds indicated in earlier ASCAT
data and the recent in situ observations.

The upper-level environment ahead of Karen is forecast to remain
unfavorable with the global models and SHIPS guidance predicting an
increase in northeasterly shear by Monday.  This is expected to
prevent the storm from strengthening, and Karen may even have
trouble maintaining tropical cyclone status while it moves over the
eastern Caribbean Sea.  After the system moves north of Puerto Rico
around midweek, it is forecast to reach more favorable upper-level
conditions, and the NHC intensity forecast again calls for
strengthening later in the forecast period.  The new intensity
forecast, however, is slightly more conservative than the previous
one at days 3-5, and is a little above the latest intensity
consensus (IVCN) model).

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward or 295/11 kt.  The
track forecast philosophy is unchanged from earlier today.  Karen
should turn northwestward, and then northward during the next day or
so as it begins to respond to a weakness in the subtropical ridge
over the western Atlantic.  This motion should bring the center of
Karen over Puerto Rico or the Virgin Islands on Tuesday. By late in
the forecast period, the dynamical models build a strong
deep-layer ridge over the southeast United States that extends
northeastward over the western Atlantic.  This pattern is likely to
cause Karen to slow its northward progression by days 4 and 5.  The
track guidance remains in very good agreement, and only slight
adjustments to the previous official forecast were required.

Key Messages:
1.  Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall will continue to
affect the southern Windward Islands through tonight.

2.  Karen is forecast to approach Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands on Tuesday, and a tropical storm watch has
been issued.  Tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, and flash
flooding is possible on these islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 12.9N  62.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 13.7N  63.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 14.9N  64.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 16.3N  65.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z 18.0N  65.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  25/1800Z 21.5N  65.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  26/1800Z 24.3N  65.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  27/1800Z 26.0N  66.3W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN

Tropical Storm Karen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019

000
FONT12 KNHC 222036
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122019               
2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
PONCE PR       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   4(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
AGUADILLA PR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SAN JUAN PR    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   6(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
VIEQUES PR     34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)  24(30)   5(35)   X(35)   X(35)
VIEQUES PR     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
VIEQUES PR     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  20(24)   6(30)   X(30)   X(30)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   1( 1)  11(12)  17(29)   2(31)   X(31)   X(31)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SABA           34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ANTIGUA        34  1   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  1   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
AVES           34  2  15(17)   4(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
DOMINICA       34  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAINT VINCENT  34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GRENADA        34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    

Tropical Storm Karen Graphics


Tropical Storm Karen 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 21:03:39 GMT

Tropical Storm Karen 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 21:03:39 GMT

Local Statement for Puerto Rico / V.I.

Issued at 0


Local Statement for Puerto Rico / V.I.

Issued at 516 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019


Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)

...JERRY SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
 As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 22
 the center of Jerry was located near 26.7, -66.9
 with movement NNW at 9 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 993 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 22

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019  
000
WTNT35 KNHC 222036
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

...JERRY SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 66.9W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Jerry.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 66.9 West.  Jerry is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h).  A turn
toward the north is expected on Monday, followed by a turn toward
the north-northeast on Tuesday, and toward the northeast on
Wednesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected
to pass near Bermuda Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

SURF:  Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 22

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019  
000
WTNT25 KNHC 222036
TCMAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N  66.9W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  90SE   0SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE  30SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N  66.9W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.3N  66.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 27.7N  67.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.0N  67.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 30.4N  68.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 31.8N  67.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 34.4N  63.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 110SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 37.0N  56.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 38.5N  50.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.7N  66.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 

Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 22

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019  
000
WTNT45 KNHC 222037
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

Jerry continues to struggle to become better organized in an
environment of moderate westerly vertical shear.  The low-level
center is near the western side of the main area of deep
convection, and the overall cloud pattern remains rather
ragged-looking.  Flight-level, SFMR-observed, and Doppler wind data
from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the intensity
remains near 55 kt.  The dynamical guidance shows that the shear
will remain rather strong throughout much of the forecast period,
so the official forecast shows little change in strength for the
next couple of days followed by gradual weakening.  This is a
little above the intensity model consensus.

The motion is still north-northwestward or 345/8 kt.  Jerry
continues to move through a weakness in the subtropical ridge.  In a
couple of days, a mid-latitude trough moving off the northeast U.S.
coast should cause the storm to turn north-northeastward to
northeastward with a gradual increase in forward speed in the
latter part of the forecast period, Jerry is likely to move
east-northeastward at a faster speed, following the mid-level
westerly flow. The official forecast is a bit slower than the
previous one and leans toward the corrected dynamical model
consensus, HCCA.


Key Messages:

1. The risk of tropical-storm-force winds on Bermuda is increasing,
with Jerry forecast to pass near the island Tuesday night and
Wednesday.  It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may
have on Bermuda, but interests there should monitor the progress of
Jerry.  A Tropical Storm Watch could be issued tonight for Bermuda.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 26.7N  66.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 27.7N  67.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 29.0N  67.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 30.4N  68.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z 31.8N  67.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  25/1800Z 34.4N  63.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  26/1800Z 37.0N  56.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  27/1800Z 38.5N  50.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019

000
FONT15 KNHC 222036
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  22            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019               
2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   3( 3)   5( 8)  15(23)  29(52)   1(53)   X(53)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)   X(14)   1(15)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    

Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics


Tropical Storm Jerry 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 20:38:16 GMT

Tropical Storm Jerry 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 20:38:16 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific


Graphical outlook

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221713
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 22 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Mario, located a few hundred miles south of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Storm Kiko,
located over the far southwestern part of the basin. The National
Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Tropical Depression
Lorena which degenerated into a broad area of low pressure over
northwestern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila

Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)

...KIKO REFUSES TO GO AWAY...
 As of 11:00 AM HST Sun Sep 22
 the center of Kiko was located near 16.1, -133.9
 with movement WSW at 7 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 42

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sun Sep 22 2019  
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 222034
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number  42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
1100 AM HST Sun Sep 22 2019

...KIKO REFUSES TO GO AWAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 133.9W
ABOUT 1630 MI...2620 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 133.9 West. Kiko is
moving toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A swinging
motion between the west-southwest and the west-northwest is forecast
to continue through the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some small fluctuations in strength are expected during the
next 2 to 3 days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 42

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019  
000
WTPZ23 KNHC 222034
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132019
2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 133.9W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE   0SE  30SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 133.9W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 133.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.7N 134.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.0N 136.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  10SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.2N 137.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.5N 138.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.0N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 18.5N 141.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 17.5N 142.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 133.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 

Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 42

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sun Sep 22 2019  
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 222035
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
1100 AM HST Sun Sep 22 2019

Not much can be added to Kiko after nearly 10 days describing the
cyclone. It still consists of a tight circulation of low clouds
with intermittent bursts of deep convection. Based on Dvorak
estimates the initial intensity is kept at 35 kts. Kiko has the
opportunity to strengthen a little bit in one of those burst, but
the general trend is for Kiko to weaken and become a remnant low as
it crosses the end of our domain.

Kiko is moving toward the west-southwest at 6 knots steered by
the subtropical ridge and its associated trades. Kiko will continue
swinging south of west and north of due west as the subtropical high
pulses during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 16.1N 133.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 15.7N 134.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 16.0N 136.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 17.2N 137.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z 18.5N 138.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  25/1800Z 19.0N 140.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/1800Z 18.5N 141.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/1800Z 17.5N 142.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 42

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 222034
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  42             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132019               
2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 135W       34  6   5(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
20N 135W       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
 
15N 140W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
 
20N 140W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  12(19)   2(21)   1(22)
20N 140W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    

Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics


Tropical Storm Kiko 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 20:36:29 GMT

Tropical Storm Kiko 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 20:36:29 GMT

Summary for Tropical Depression Mario (EP4/EP142019)

...MARIO EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BEFORE REACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA...
 As of 3:00 PM MDT Sun Sep 22
 the center of Mario was located near 22.9, -112.4
 with movement NNW at 10 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Mario Public Advisory Number 22

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019  
000
WTPZ34 KNHC 222039
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Mario Advisory Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142019
300 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019

...MARIO EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BEFORE REACHING BAJA
CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 112.4W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Mario
was located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 112.4 West.  The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h), and a turn toward the north and north-northeast is expected
over the next day or two.  On the forecast track, the center will
move inland over the south-central Baja California peninsula on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Mario should
degenerate into a remnant low later overnight.  The low is expected
to dissipate by late Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Depression Mario Forecast Advisory Number 22

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019  
000
WTPZ24 KNHC 222108 CCA
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142019
2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019

CORRECTED STATUS AT 24/1800Z

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 112.4W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 112.4W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 112.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.0N 113.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 25.3N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 26.4N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 27.5N 113.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 112.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Tropical Depression Mario Forecast Discussion Number 22

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019  
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 222109 CCA
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Mario Discussion Number  22...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142019
300 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019

Corrected status at 48H (24/1800Z)

Mario has maintained its reprieve from discontinuance of
advisories, with a few thunderstorms persisting to the west of the
low-level center.  This continues to barely support tropical cyclone
status.  Assuming that this convection dissipates soon, the cyclone
could degenerate into remnant low by early Monday.  The system is
likely to dissipate completely in a couple of days.

Mario continues to move north-northwestward, or 345 at 9 kt.  The
cyclone should move around the western periphery of a mid-level
anticyclone and make landfall over the south-central Baja
California on Tuesday as a very weak system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 22.9N 112.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 24.0N 113.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  23/1800Z 25.3N 114.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  24/0600Z 26.4N 114.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/1800Z 27.5N 113.6W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Depression Mario Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 222039
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  22       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142019               
2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
25N 115W       34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    

Tropical Depression Mario Graphics


Tropical Depression Mario 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 21:11:08 GMT

Tropical Depression Mario 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 21:11:08 GMT

Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena (EP5/EP152019)

...LORENA DEGENERATES INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
 As of 9:00 AM MDT Sun Sep 22
 the center of Lorena was located near 28.8, -111.5
 with movement N at 9 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena Public Advisory Number 21

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019  
000
WTPZ35 KNHC 221431
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena Advisory Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
900 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019

...LORENA DEGENERATES INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 111.5W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena crossed the coast of northwestern
Mexico this morning. At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of the
disturbance was estimated near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 111.5
West.  The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 9
mph (15 km/h), and this motion will continue to bring the
disturbance farther inland until dissipation.

Maximum sustained winds associated with this system are near 30 mph
(45 km/h) with higher gusts. Dissipation is expected tonight or
early Monday.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------

RAINFALL:  The system is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over central Sonora. This rainfall
may result in life-threatening flash floods in Sonora.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster Avila

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena Forecast Advisory Number 21

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019  
000
WTPZ25 KNHC 221431
TCMEP5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152019
1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 111.5W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 111.5W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 111.5W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 30.0N 111.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 111.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 21

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019  
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 221432
TCDEP5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
900 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019

The poorly defined center of what is left of Lorena crossed the
coast of northwestern Mexico this morning to the northwest of
Guaymas.  The system has degenerated into a broad area of low
pressure accompanied by a few showers.  The low is expected to move
farther inland and dissipate tonight or early Monday.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 28.8N 111.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  23/0000Z 30.0N 111.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019

000
FOPZ15 KNHC 221431
PWSEP5
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  21    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152019               
1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena Graphics


Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 14:35:02 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 15:52:27 GMT