000
FXUS61 KOKX 040529
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
129 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region through Thursday will slowly weaken
beginning Thursday night and give way to an approaching frontal
system on Friday. The associated cold front will pass through
Saturday into Saturday night. High pressure will then likely
build from the south and west Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Forecast remains on track into the overnight with only subtle
adjustments to align with current conditions. Absent patchy fog
development into early morning, a quiet night is expected with
high pressure in place and the previous discussion follows.

Generally tranquil conditions are expected through the
middle of the week as a ridge of high pressure remains centered
over the Northeast. Clear skies are expected overnight and with
light to calm winds, radiational cooling takes place once
again. Lows are  to drop into the 50s for the interior. Coastal
and urban areas bottom out in the low 60s. Additionally,
dewpoints in the 50s and low 60s will likely result in areas of
fog developing overnight as temperatures cool. Fog may become
locally dense in a couple of spots. Any SPSs for dense fog will
be handled as it occurs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
High pressure remains firmly overhead on Wednesday so another day of
dry and clear conditions are expected. Higher heights and a light
flow will allow for temperatures to once again climb into the 80s
for much of the area. While record highs are not expected to be
broken, temperatures are expected to be 10 to 15 degrees above
average. Coastal areas that are typically prone to seabreeze
influence may only rise into the upper 70s.

Light winds and clear skies will once again result in a favorable
radiational cooling environment Wednesday night. Dew points
will prevent lows from dropping too much but lows in the low to
middle 50s are expected for Interior areas with lows in the
upper 50s and low 60s for coastal areas. Patchy fog is once
again expected to develop overnight. Locally dense fog will
remain possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Heights fall on Thursday as the upper ridge axis shifts offshore
ahead of a digging H5 trough into the Upper Midwest. Upper low in
the trough eventually closes and cuts off from the flow over the
Great Lakes this weekend, potentially meandering nearby into early
next week.

Late this week, E/SE flow strengthens as 1030 mb surface high
pressure shifts offshore south of the Canadian Maritimes.
As the upper level trough approaches, an associated surface low will
track well to our north and west. This low will drag a cold front
through the area late Saturday into Saturday night, with the
potential for a wave of low pressure to form along the front over or
near our area. As it approaches, TC Phillipe will be moving
north through the open Atlantic. Global guidance indicates the
negatively tilted trough may bend Phillipe back to the west.
While the center is expected to remain well offshore, some of the
moisture may get transported locally in the flow, though this
will need to be fine tuned over the next several days. As of
now, the system overall continues to look progressive. With a
moist air mass in place, BUFKIT soundings indicate PWATs increase
to about 1.75 inches ahead of the cold front on Saturday, rain
(or drizzle) chances increase Friday afternoon and become
likely late Friday night through Saturday. Locally heavy
downpours will be possible, with perhaps an embedded rumble of
thunder or two. Total rainfall looks to average around an inch
region wide. The cold front moves through Saturday afternoon,
with winds increasing and veering westerly behind it. Lingering
showers are possible for the next several days with the upper
level low, mainly north and west of NYC. Drier weather returns
by early next week with high pressure building to the south and
west.

After an initial mild start to the period, temperatures fall below
normal behind the fropa on Saturday. Highs in the 70s continue Thu
and Fri, before trending down through the weekend. Temperatures
likely struggle to climb out of the 50s everywhere Sunday and
Monday with the cool upper low meandering nearby. Largely
followed the National Blend of Models for this update, with only
subtle adjustment.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure builds overnight, then moves offshore late in the day
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Mainly VFR thru the TAF period. Some patchy fog expected overnight,
mainly for outlying terminals. Patchy fog included for SWF/HPN/ISP/
GON. Confidence for fog occurrence remains too low at this time to
include at remaining terminals.

Winds will be light and variable overnight, then out of the SE
on Wednesday mainly around 5 kt in the afternoon. The winds will
remain light into the Wednesday evening push, mainly out of the
S-SE at 5 kt or less. Winds become light and variable again
Wednesday night.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low chance of vsby restrictions at terminals, but possible for
KEWR, KTEB, and KJFK.


OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday night...MVFR or lower in fog with light to calm winds.

Thursday...VFR.

Friday...MVFR or lower possible. Rain possible by aftn.

Saturday...MVFR or lower with rain.

Sunday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub SCA conditions are expected through at least Thursday under a
weak pressure gradient with high pressure remaining in control. A
continuing ocean swell is also expected.

Conditions remain below SCA thresholds through Friday. Increasing SE
flow ahead of a cold front into the weekend should allow ocean seas
to build to around 5 ft Saturday. Wind gusts may exceed 25 kt on the
ocean on Sunday before subsiding. Non ocean waters largely remain
below SCA criteria through this time.

Ocean seas will remain elevated into early next week as long period
swells from distant Tropical Storm Philippe move into the waters.
Refer to the National Hurricane Center, https:/www.nhc.noaa.gov for
official forecasts on Philippe.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns expected through at least Thursday. A
period of showers is likely late Friday through Saturday, with
around an inch of rainfall expected at this time. WPC currently
has the region in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall,
indicating the potential for nuisance flooding and isolated
flash flooding.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The Peconic River at Riverhead NY tidal gauge remains out
of service for unrepresentative data. The gauge is currently
being looked into by our partners at the USGS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DR/MW
NEAR TERM...DR/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...DR/MW
HYDROLOGY...DR/MW
EQUIPMENT...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion