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Updated:  06-01-2024 7:30pm 
  Clear Temperature: 80.7°F   -2.8°F/hr Humidity: 35% Dew Point: 50.5°F Wind: NW  3.4 mph Gust: 3.0 mph Barometer: 30.058 inHg  Steady Rain Today: 0.00 in UV Index: 0.0  None

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885
FXUS61 KOKX 220246
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
946 PM EST Sat Dec 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the region through Sunday night, beginning
to push east offshore on Monday. A weak frontal system
approaches Monday night and moves through Tuesday. High
pressure builds back into the area Wednesday and remains in
control through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
** COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON BEGINS TONIGHT **

Tonight, surface low pressure continues to exit over the Canadian
Maritimes while surface high pressure gradually moves towards the
region from Ontario and the Great Lakes. Simultaneously, deep
trough of low pressure will remain over the area with continued
cold air advection aloft as 850mb temperatures get down to -15C.

Temperatures will drop to the teens tonight across the area with
some interior areas dropping into the upper-single digits, while
some areas of the NYC metro may only drop to near 20. Winds are
forecasted to stay somewhat elevated into tonight with NW gusts
dropping from 25-30 mph early this evening to 15-25 mph late tonight
and early tomorrow morning. This is due to a continued pressure
gradient between the departing low and the approaching high. This
will keep temperatures from dropping much lower than forecast.

However, should winds drop lower than the currently forecasted
tonight, its possible radiational cooling may have a more pronounced
effect on cooling things down further than forecasted. Especially
since clear skies are expected tonight.

Given the anticipated cold temperatures and the still present winds
tonight, wind chills are forecasted to be between 7 to 0 across
coastal areas of SW CT, LI, NYC, and NE NJ. Other interior areas,
the LI PIne Barrens and SE CT could see wind chills drop between 0
and -6.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure begins to really take over on Sunday from the
west and north as the upper-level trough axis pushes east of the
area offshore. Sunny skies are expected with NW winds continuing to
wind down.

Frigid highs in the mid-to-low 20s are expected Sunday afternoon.
This is around 20 degrees colder than the climatological average.
Maximum afternoon wind chills will be in the mid/low-teens area-
wide.

Surface high pressure starts to center over the area Sunday night
leading to light or calm winds under clear skies as an upper-level
ridge begins to build in. This will keep arctic air in place.
Optimal radiational cooling conditions are expected Sunday night.
Therefore, Sunday night will see the coldest temperatures so far this
year.

Sunday night lows are forecasted to be in the mid/low-teens for
parts of Long Island, NYC metro, and coastal areas of NE NJ and S
CT. Northern interior areas in addition to the LI Pine Barrens will
see the coldest lows in the single digits. Some of the furthest
interior areas may only be a few degrees away from zero.
Despite cold temperatures, wind chills will not be a significant
factor and will even be higher than the night previously due to
nearly calm winds.

High pressure remains in control Monday, but begins to shift
offshore in the afternoon, leading to southerly winds returning as a
shortwave approaches from the west. This will also lead to
increasing cloud cover in the afternoon and early evening west to
east. Temperatures will be moderated due to rising heights aloft and
the winds becoming southerly. As well as increasing 850mb
temperatures. Highs on Monday are forecast to be in the mid-20s
to low-30s area-wide withe areas of the NYC metro and southern
coasts of Long Island possibly getting back above freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Zonal flow aloft to start out the long term. A short wave approaches
from the Great Lakes region Monday night, while another approaches
from just south of Hudson Bay, with the two phasing over the eastern
Great Lakes to start off Tuesday morning. The associated cold front
remains to the west Monday night, with a surface low moving east or
east southeast during this time frame across the Great Lakes and
also ending up over the eastern Great Lakes by daybreak Tuesday
morning.

The system looks to remain positively tilted as it moves through our
region Tuesday. The aforementioned surface low will weaken as it
moves toward the area, and then a secondary low develops well
offshore. With weak lift associated with the front and much of the
dynamics remaining north of the region, not much in the way of
precipitation is expected. Whatever does fall will likely be snow
for much of the region, with perhaps a rain/snow mix for eastern
Long Island and southeastern CT Monday night into Tuesday. However,
if any snow accumulates, it may be just a dusting, with only a
couple of tenths expected (a few hundredths of an inch of liquid
equivalent expected).

Thereafter, high pressure remains in control, situated over northern
New England and southeastern Canada through the end of next week. A
frontal system to our west tries to make its way into our area
Friday night into Saturday, but the 1034-1038 high over southeastern
Canada may win out, and any precipitation may run into some dry air.
This far out, there is of course a great deal of uncertainty, so
stuck close to the NBM.

Seasonable temperatures expected through Thursday. Temperatures
start to rise a few degrees above normal on Friday and a few more
degrees on Saturday with strong subsidence occurring over the
area.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure builds across the terminals through Sunday.

VFR through the TAF period.

NW winds weaken to 10-15 kt overnight with gusts settling to
20-25 kt. Gusts could briefly end at some outlying terminals
early Sunday morning. NW winds continue on Sunday with gusts
around 20 kt possible after day break, ending around 16-19z.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may become occasional late tonight into early Sunday
morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday Night-Monday: VFR.

Monday night-Tuesday: Chance of MVFR in light snow/light rain mix,
mainly into Tuesday morning.

Wednesday-Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Light freezing spray is possible tonight, mainly across the Long
Island Sound where water temperatures are a bit lower.

Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all waters this evening.
As the high builds toward the waters tonight, winds and gusts will
fall below advisory levels on the non ocean waters late tonight, and
on the ocean waters early Sunday morning, with seas remaining
elevated into early Sunday afternoon.

Once the advisories end, winds and waves are expected to remain
below SCA criteria through Thursday of next week. However,
waves may briefly touch 5 ft on the ocean waters Tuesday into
Tuesday night with the passage of a cold front in association
with strong cold advection behind the cold front.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected into the beginning of next
weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-
     338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion