000
FXUS61 KOKX 122334
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
734 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of surface troughs will pivot through during the first
half of the weekend. A high pressure ridge briefly works in
Saturday night into Sunday morning. A weak wave of low pressure
will drag a warm front followed by a cold front through Sunday
night into Monday morning. High pressure takes over Monday,
potentially followed by a warm front front moving in late
Tuesday into Wednesday. Unsettled weather will continue into
the end of the week as low pressure passes near the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Forecast is on track with just a few minor adjustments to
reflect current observations. Otherwise, surface low pressure
over southeastern Canada will trek northward tonight as the
associated cut off upper low moves into New England. A weak
trough may provide some additional lift for showers for western
portions of the forecast area, mainly well north and west of New
York City for the first part of tonight. As the surface trough
moves through and weakens late tonight, the chances for
precipitation decreases, with just a slight chance for the
western half of the forecast area.

SW flow tonight should diminish and turn a bit more toward the
west, but gusts of 25 to 30 mph should still be possible given
strong cold air advection, which looks to become stronger on
Saturday. However, winds may shift a bit more toward the S later
tonight prior to the trough moving through, but then should
shift more toward the WSW toward daybreak.

The cold air advection should also allow lows tonight to drop
to the 40s region- wide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Another surface trough or two look to move through Saturday
associated with the back edge of the broad surface low in
southern Canada. There may be some additional lift with the
upper level trough that will be moving through around the same
time as the surface trough. A somewhat organized, but weak area
of showers looks to move across the western half of the
forecast area in the morning into the early afternoon.

Winds will increase on Saturday, with gusts around 35 mph
across the forecast area with good mixing with cold pool aloft
and pressure gradient still in place on the back side of low
pressure in southeastern Canada. Any showers may contain brief
gusty winds, but much of the time it should remain dry with more
of a classic V inverted profile.

With a cooler air mass now in place, temperatures are expected
to be slightly below normal for Saturday, in the lower to middle
50s.

Dry condition expected Saturday night with a ridge of high
pressure moving into the region. Lows will be near to slightly
above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Sunday starts off with a high pressure ridge at the surface nosing
in from the south. The day should be primarily dry, but clouds do
increase in advance of a frontal system to the north and west. The
front will be moisture starved, thus only chance to slight chance
PoPs getting later in the day and mainly across the interior. A
southwest flow ahead of the front should allow temperatures across
the interior to climb into the middle and upper 60s to near 70.
Closer to the coast, highs will only reach the upper 50s and lower
60s.

Showers along with an a threat of an isolated rumble of thunder will
continue into Sunday night. A cold front pushes across the area from
the north late Sunday night, with high pressure building back into
the region in its wake. The high will remain in place through
Tuesday.

Another low pressure system and frontal system impacts the region
towards the middle and end of the week. A slow moving warm front
will lift  towards the area Wednesday and Thursday, followed by a
cold front on Friday. Will stick with just chance POPs for now.

Temperatures will remain above normal for much of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Strong low pressure will continue to lift north through Quebec with
high pressure slowly building into the terminals through the
TAF period.Strong low pressure will continue to lift north through Quebec with
high pressure slowly building in through the TAF period.

VFR. SW winds bcmg W overnight with gusts around 25kt.

On Saturday, low end VFR expected in stratocumulus cloud
cover/ceilings. Spotty showers possible, but with little impact to
flight categories. Westerly winds gust 30-35kt Saturday.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Potential for prevailing sustained winds and gusts to be up to
5kt lower than forecast from 00z to around midnight.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sat night: VFR W-NW winds gust around 25kt.

VFR. SW winds bcmg W overnight with gusts around 25kt.

On Saturday, low end VFR expected in stratocumulus cloud
cover/ceilings. Spotty showers possible, but with little impact to
flight categories. Westerly winds gust 30-35kt Saturday.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Potential for prevailing sustained winds and gusts to be up to
5kt lower than forecast from 00z to around midnight.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sat night: VFR W-NW winds gust around 25kt.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR and showers in the afternoon.
SW-W winds G20-25kt.

Mon through Wed: Mainly VFR. Slight chc of MVFR late Wed.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA gusts are expected across all waters to start off the
tonight period. Winds will diminish through the night however,
and there may be a period of sub-SCA winds, but decided to keep
the SCA up as winds will increase once again towards daybreak
Saturday. Winds on the ocean look to increase to gale force once
again, so issued another Gale Warning for Saturday for these
waters, while all non-ocean waters will sea SCA gusts. Winds
diminish late in the day into Saturday night, falling below SCA
levels everywhere after midnight.

Waves on the ocean waters will diminish tonight to 5 to 10 ft,
remaining steady for Saturday as winds increase again, then
further diminish Saturday night, but remain above 5 ft through
the night. For the sound, wave are expected to remain below 5 ft
through tonight, then increase to 3 to 5 ft Saturday as winds
increase, then diminish to below 5 ft around midnight. The
extreme eastern sound may hang on to 5 ft seas a bit longer.

Small craft conditions will continue on Sunday as a SW flow
increases out ahead of a cold front. Conditions remain elevated
Sunday night and gradually diminish during the day Monday. Sub small
craft conditions are then likely Monday night with lighter winds and
lowering seas into the middle of next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns exist throughout the forecast period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ331-332-
     335-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ338-350-
     353-355.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM to 2 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ338-353-355.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ350.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/JP
NEAR TERM...BC/JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/JP
HYDROLOGY...BC/JP

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion