000
FXUS61 KOKX 210557
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
157 AM EDT Sat May 21 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front approaches from the south and west overnight and
crosses the area early Saturday morning. High pressure then
builds off the eastern seaboard later Saturday in Saturday night.
A cold front approaches Sunday, passing through the area Sunday
night and offshore by early Monday. High pressure then builds
in through the middle of next week. A frontal system may
approach the area from the south toward the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Convection has passed to the east and it`s wake, light
winds, low-level moisture, and a strengthening low-level
inversion all point towards dense fog expanding across the
entire forecast area. Thus, a dense fog advisory has been issued
through 9 am. Warm front poised to the south will move through
the area toward daybreak.

Lows have been bounced up a bit with most locations expected to
get into the lower 60s, which is pretty much where we are at
04Z (midnight). Not much change in the forecast overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Mid level ridge moves in on Saturday. At the surface, the
region will be in the warm sector. To the northeast of the
region there will be a warm front and a cold front well to the
west. This cold front will be from the Eastern Great Lakes
southwest through the South Central U.S. near Missouri and
Oklahoma. With ridging and any shortwave positive vorticity
advection shifting well north of the region, dry conditions are
expected through the day.

The airmass will become hot and humid. Overall, the hottest
areas are Northeast NJ, Lower Hudson Valley, NYC, SW Connecticut
and interior Southern CT. Because of this being the first hot
and humid event of the warm season and the dramatic warmup from
the previous day, wanted to have this heat advisory for Saturday
even for locations that may seem more marginal for meeting
criteria as they are pretty close to the criteria (within a few
degrees). With the uncertainty of the temperature parameter,
only a degree warmer and much of the region could be getting to
near 100 degree heat index. For the coastline especially
Coastal Connecticut New Haven through New London as well as
Southern Long Island plus Twin Forks, highs forecast are more in
the upper 70s to lower 80s with heat indices forecast mostly
near 80 to 85.

850mb temperatures will further rise to 20 to 21 degrees C on a
W-WSW 850mb flow. Went with deterministic NBM for temperatures
and dewpoints, and for the max temperatures, they are into the
low to mid 90s for the Lower Hudson Valley, Northeast NJ, NYC,
all of Fairfield CT, and northern parts of New Haven CT,
Middlesex CT and New London CT. Some record highs are possible.
See climate section for more details. The temperatures combined
with the dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s mostly, will make for
max heat indices for the aforementioned area are in the 95 to
100 degree range with much of this area also expected to be in
the upper 90s to 100 range. Because of this, there is a heat
advisory for these areas from 12 to 8PM Saturday. Southern
Fairfield CT, Southern Westchester NY and NYC are new additions
to the heat advisory. There are localized spots with the latest
forecast that are hitting 98 to 100 degrees in SW Fairfield CT,
Southern Westchester NY as well as the Bronx, Manhattan and
Staten Island. Brooklyn and Queens will be relatively cooler
with heat indices reaching the low to mid 90s but there are some
spots hitting 94 to 96 degrees heat indices. Because of how
close to 100 degree heat index these new additions were, that is
why the heat advisory was expanded. The heat advisory threshold
of 100 degree heat index for any time was threshold being met
for this case of the heat advisory. There is more uncertainty
with heat indices Sunday so held off on extending heat advisory
into Sunday at this time and will let subsequent shifts reassess
and extend advisory if needed.

For Saturday night, the mid level ridge moves east of the region
with more SW flow aloft and the region will remain in the warm
sector at the surface. Dry conditions expected to prevail but it
will be warm and humid. NBM for lows used and range from mostly
lower 60s to lower 70s, which will be notably warmer relative
to the previous night. It will also remain humid with dewpoints
generally staying in the low to mid 60s.

For Sunday, a cold front will continue to approach from the
west. Another hot and humid day is expected but temperatures are
expected to be a few degrees less than the previous day. With
only isolated and small areas getting 95+ heat indices, did not
extend into Sunday with heat advisory at this time. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms increase late in the day as the cold
front approaches closer.

Sunday has forecast heat indices in NYC, Southern Westchester
NY and Southern Fairfield CT of 93 to 94 degrees in quite a few
spots so very close to meeting heat advisory threshold also of
95+ heat index for 2 days in a row. Farther to the north and
west, there are more locations getting to 94 to 97 degree
forecast heat index, so those locations could also meet the
heat advisory for 2 days in a row of 95+ heat index.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Minimal changes made with this update and followed the NBM closely.
Global models trending toward drier conditions behind a cold frontal
passage Sunday night into Monday morning. The one exception being
the operational Canadian, which significantly slows the front cold
front down, not bringing it through until Monday night. The latter
of which has no support from its ensemble. Thus, after a round of
showers and thunderstorms Sunday evening/night, it may very will be
dry through the middle of next week. For the time, have walked back
rain chances Monday through Wednesday with only a slight chance of
showers.

An isolated strong and/or severe thunderstorm is possible Sunday
evening/night with a moderate to high CAPE environment, but weak
shear. Conditions cool and dry out behind the front, with
temperatures returning to seasonable much of next week. By Thursday,
global models are hinting at a stronger surface low moving through
the Great Lakes, bringing a cold front through the area.  However,
typical timing and strength uncertainties exist this far out, with
differences noted amongst the models.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A warm front to the southwest of the terminals approaches overnight,
then passes through the area during the morning shortly after
daybreak. High pressure then builds off the eastern seaboard through
Saturday evening.

Conditions have quickly fallen to mainly LIFR and VLIFR with fog,
with KSWF terminal IFR, with LIFR possible. These conditions will be
widespread overnight, and will begin to dissipate shortly after
daybreak as a the warm front gets a kick and quickly passes over the
area Saturday morning, towards 11z-13z. High pressure then builds
off the eastern seaboard through Saturday evening.

Mainly light and variable winds through the overnight. After 12z,
winds become W-WNW then shift to the SW-S late morning into the
afternoon around 10 kt.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Flight categories could fluctuate between VLIFR / LIFR and IFR until
Saturday morning towards 12-13z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Sat Night...Chance of MVFR or lower, mainly east of NYC metro.
.Sun...Mainly VFR. Afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms
possible with MVFR or lower.
.Mon...Chance of MVFR or lower in showers.
.Tue and Wed...Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Dense Fog Advisory issued for all waters through 9 AM. It`s
possible that eastern portions may need to be extended a bit
longer.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected through Saturday with SE winds
decreasing tonight and eventually becoming SW on Saturday. Wind
speeds will be well below SCA thresholds. Ocean seas will be
generally between 2 and 4 ft. Saturday night into Sunday gets
close to SCA criteria on the ocean with wind gusts getting
closer 20 to 25 kt and seas around 4 ft. Non-ocean waters
though stay below SCA criteria.

With warm weather expected this weekend, it is important to
remember that water temps remain rather cold, in the 50s. Thus,
a marine weather statement will likely be needed both Saturday
and Sunday to highlight the dangers of swimming and being in
waters this cold.

SCA conditions are possible on the ocean waters with a cold
frontal passage Sunday evening into Monday morning, when seas
are expected to reach 5 ft and southwest gusts near 25 kt.
Otherwise, sub-SCA criteria expected on all waters through
Wednesday. Seas on the ocean zones could flirt with 5 ft Tuesday
into Wednesday with E/NE flow around 15g20kt.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected on Saturday and Sunday.
Here is a list of the record high temperatures for our local
climate sites and their corresponding forecast high temperatures:

Saturday:

Central Park, NY...................93 in 1996   Forecast High: 92
JFK International Airport..........90 in 1996   Forecast High: 84
Laguardia Airport..................93 in 1996   Forecast High: 91
Islip/MacArthur Airport............90 in 1996   Forecast High: 85
Newark Liberty.....................96 in 1996   Forecast High: 95
Bridgeport, CT.....................88 in 1959   Forecast High: 82

Sunday:

Central Park, NY...................96 in 1941   Forecast High: 90
JFK International Airport..........94 in 2021   Forecast High: 83
Laguardia Airport..................94 in 1992   Forecast High: 88
Islip/MacArthur Airport............92 in 1992   Forecast High: 82
Newark Liberty.....................98 in 1992   Forecast High: 93
Bridgeport, CT.....................88 in 2021   Forecast High: 82

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for CTZ005>012.
     Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     CTZ005>009.
NY...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ067>075-176-178.
NJ...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
     Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for ANZ331-332-
     335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/DBR
NEAR TERM...JM/DS/DW
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JM/DBR
HYDROLOGY...JM/DBR
CLIMATE...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion