SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 158

WW 158 SEVERE TSTM AR MS TN 091925Z - 100200Z
      
WW 0158 Image
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 158
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
225 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Extreme eastern Arkansas
  Northern Mississippi
  Southwestern Tennessee

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 225 PM until
  900 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
    to 2 inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
intensity while spreading generally eastward from Arkansas into
Tennessee and northern Mississippi through the afternoon/evening. 
The storm environment will favor supercells and organized clusters
capable of producing large hail and damaging winds.  A tornado or
two will also be possible with the most persistent supercells.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles west southwest
of Memphis TN to 45 miles northeast of Tupelo MS. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 157...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28025.

...Thompson

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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 157

WW 157 SEVERE TSTM AR LA MS TX 091815Z - 100200Z
      
WW 0157 Image
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 157
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
115 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Much of central and southern Arkansas
  Northern Louisiana
  West central Mississippi
  Northeast Texas

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 115 PM until
  900 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
    inches in diameter likely
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to form this
afternoon along and ahead of a cold front central Arkansas
southwestward into northeast Texas, as well as from northern
Louisiana into west central Mississippi.  The storm environment will
favor a mix of supercells and organized clusters capable of
producing isolated very large hail and damaging winds through this
evening.  A tornado or two cannot be ruled out with the more
intense/persistent supercells.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west southwest
of Longview TX to 55 miles east northeast of Pine Bluff AR. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
28025.

...Thompson

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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 159 Status Reports

WW 0159 Status Updates
      
WW 0159 Status Image
STATUS FOR WATCH 0159 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 158 Status Reports

WW 0158 Status Updates
      
WW 0158 Status Image
STATUS FOR WATCH 0158 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 157 Status Reports

WW 0157 Status Updates
      
WW 0157 Status Image
STATUS REPORT ON WW 157

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..DEAN..05/09/21

ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 157 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ARC001-003-011-013-017-019-023-025-027-029-039-041-043-045-051-
053-057-059-061-069-073-079-081-085-091-095-097-099-103-105-109-
117-119-125-133-139-141-145-147-092040-

AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARKANSAS             ASHLEY              BRADLEY             
CALHOUN              CHICOT              CLARK               
CLEBURNE             CLEVELAND           COLUMBIA            
CONWAY               DALLAS              DESHA               
DREW                 FAULKNER            GARLAND             
GRANT                HEMPSTEAD           HOT SPRING          
HOWARD               JEFFERSON           LAFAYETTE           
LINCOLN              LITTLE RIVER        LONOKE              
MILLER               MONROE              MONTGOMERY          
NEVADA               OUACHITA            PERRY               
PIKE                 PRAIRIE             PULASKI             
SALINE               SEVIER              UNION               
VAN BUREN            WHITE               WOODRUFF            


LAC013-015-017-027-031-035-049-061-067-073-081-083-111-119-123-
092040-

LA 
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SPC MD 570

MD 0570 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTH TX
MD 0570 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0570
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 PM CDT Sun May 09 2021

Areas affected...Portions of central/north TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 091841Z - 092015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe thunderstorm threat will increase with time
this afternoon, with a few supercells possible. Very large hail will
be the primary threat, with locally severe wind gusts also possible.
Watch issuance is likely by 20Z.

DISCUSSION...At 1830Z, a cold front is moving southeastward across
parts of central/north TX. A plume of elevated convection is noted
just east of the front, with gradually deepening cumulus noted along
the front itself. As the cap continues to erode this afternoon,
scattered surface-based storms are expected to develop along the
front, and may also possibly evolve from the plume of elevated
convection to the east. Steep midlevel lapse rates are supporting
moderate-to-strong buoyancy across the region, with MLCAPE of
2000-3000 J/kg along/east of the front per recent objective
mesoanalyses. While low-level flow is expected to gradually weaken
across the area with time, midlevel flow will remain relatively
strong, supporting effective shear of 40-50 kt. 

As surface-based storms mature this afternoon, a few supercells are
likely to develop, with a threat of very large hail. Locally severe
wind gusts will also be possible, especially with any upscale
growing clusters that may evolve with time. Severe thunderstorm
watch issuance is likely by 20Z.

..Dean/Thompson.. 05/09/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30939933 31599815 32449667 32869598 32759576 32129561
            31609547 30629519 30069751 29979861 30339929 30559936
            30939933 

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SPC MD 569

MD 0569 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO...AND THE FAR WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
MD 0569 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0569
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CDT Sun May 09 2021

Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico...far southeast Colorado...and
the far western Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 091831Z - 092100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across northeast New Mexico and
far southeast Colorado over the next few hours will pose a threat
for damaging winds and perhaps isolated hail. This threat will
remain isolated, and a watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A deepening cluster of cumulus within a post
cold-frontal upslope flow regime across north/northeastern NM is
noted in recent GOES imagery. A few lightning strikes have been
noted in the past hour with transient convective cells, hinting that
more robust convection is possible in the next 1-2 hours. Across the
high Plains to the east, temperatures are gradually warming into the
low 60s amid partly cloudy skies. Cool temperatures aloft atop the
warming boundary-layer are steepening low-level lapse rates to 7-9
C/km, and this trend should continue with eastward extent through
the late afternoon. Although instability will remain somewhat
limited due to minimal low-level moisture (only around 500 J/kg
MLCAPE is expected), 30-45 knot effective bulk shear magnitudes may
support some storm organization and an isolated hail threat adjacent
to the higher terrain. Given the well-mixed boundary layer, strong
downburst winds appear to be the more likely hazard. In general, the
localized forcing for ascent and limited instability will likely
result in only a few strong to severe storms that may propagate as
far east as the NM/TX border by early evening. The overall severe
threat is expected to remain isolated, precluding the need for a
watch.

..Moore/Thompson.. 05/09/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34710551 35170586 35680611 36390582 36940551 37290510
            37470460 37450410 37130357 36620325 35960290 34930287
            34320307 34300453 34710551 

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SPC May 9, 2021 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CDT Sun May 09 2021

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of
central/east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South.
Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes all
appear possible. Other more isolated strong/severe storms may occur
across the southern High Plains.

...Central TX to middle TN through early tonight...
A strong late season cold front is moving southeastward across
OK/north TX, while outflow from overnight convection is sagging
southward across northern AR.  A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates
is in place atop upper 60s to lower 70s boundary-layer dewpoints
from TX into AR/LA ahead of the cold front, and this environment
will spread some toward the Mid-South today.  Surface-based
thunderstorm development is anticipated by early afternoon along the
front and remnant outflow from western TN across northwestern MS
into southern AR, and storms will develop west-southwestward into TX
along the cold front through mid-late afternoon as surface heating
and low-level ascent along the boundary weaken convective
inhibition.

MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg is expected ahead of the cold front to the
west of the MS River this afternoon.  Deep-layer shear will be
sufficient for supercells and organized storm clusters capable of
producing isolated very large hail and damaging winds, though
weakening low-level shear through the day will tend to limit the
tornado threat with westward extent.  Farther east toward northwest
MS and TN, low-level shear and warm advection will remain stronger
later into the afternoon, within the southwestern extent of the
low-level jet related to the surface cyclone and midlevel trough
crossing the Mid MS/OH Valleys.  Clouds and outflow with early
convection will modulate the northeast extent of the primary severe
threat into western/middle TN and northwestern MS.

...Northeast NM and vicinity this afternoon/evening...
Isolated thunderstorm development will be possible along the east
edge of the higher terrain by mid afternoon in a post-frontal,
upslope flow regime.  Low-level moisture will be limited, but
surface heating of the post-frontal air mass, in combination with
sufficiently cool midlevel temperatures, will result in weak
surface-based buoyancy.  There will be sufficient buoyancy and
vertical shear for a couple of high-based, low-topped storms with
some supercell structure, and an attendant threat for isolated
strong/damaging gusts and marginally severe hail (closer to the
higher terrain).

..Thompson/Moore.. 05/09/2021

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SPC May 9, 2021 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Sun May 09 2021

Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of
central/east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South.
Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes all
appear possible. Other more isolated strong/severe storms may occur
across the southern High Plains.

...20Z Update...

...Central TX to middle TN through early tonight...
Forecast outlined in the previous discussion (appended below)
remains valid. Only change to the outlook was to adjust the western
edge of the probabilities from the Arklatex into the Lower OH Valley
based on the current position of the front.

Widespread thunderstorms are still expected to develop along the
front as it progresses southeastward into the unstable air mass
extending from central TX into the TN Valley. Large hail (some
potentially great than 2" in diameter), damaging wind gusts, and a
tornado or two are all possible with these storms. Severe
thunderstorm threat should last into the evening. 

...Northeast NM and vicinity this afternoon/evening...
As mentioned in MCD 569...thunderstorms developing across northeast
New Mexico and far southeast Colorado over the next few hours will
pose a threat for damaging winds and perhaps isolated hail.

..Mosier.. 05/09/2021

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun May 09 2021/

...Central TX to middle TN through early tonight...
A strong late season cold front is moving southeastward across
OK/north TX, while outflow from overnight convection is sagging
southward across northern AR.  A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates
is in place atop upper 60s to lower 70s boundary-layer dewpoints
from TX into AR/LA ahead of the cold front, and this environment
will spread some toward the Mid-South today.  Surface-based
thunderstorm development is anticipated by early afternoon along the
front and remnant outflow from western TN across northwestern MS
into southern AR, and storms will develop west-southwestward into TX
along the cold front through mid-late afternoon as surface heating
and low-level ascent along the boundary weaken convective
inhibition.

MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg is expected ahead of the cold front to the
west of the MS River this afternoon.  Deep-layer shear will be
sufficient for supercells and organized storm clusters capable of
producing isolated very large hail and damaging winds, though
weakening low-level shear through the day will tend to limit the
tornado threat with westward extent.  Farther east toward northwest
MS and TN, low-level shear and warm advection will remain stronger
later into the afternoon, within the southwestern extent of the
low-level jet related to the surface cyclone and midlevel trough
crossing the Mid MS/OH Valleys.  Clouds and outflow with early
convection will modulate the northeast extent of the primary severe
threat into western/middle TN and northwestern MS.

...Northeast NM and vicinity this afternoon/evening...
Isolated thunderstorm development will be possible along the east
edge of the higher terrain by mid afternoon in a post-frontal,
upslope flow regime.  Low-level moisture will be limited, but
surface heating of the post-frontal air mass, in combination with
sufficiently cool midlevel temperatures, will result in weak
surface-based buoyancy.  There will be sufficient buoyancy and
vertical shear for a couple of high-based, low-topped storms with
some supercell structure, and an attendant threat for isolated
strong/damaging gusts and marginally severe hail (closer to the
higher terrain).

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SPC May 9, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
      
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Sun May 09 2021

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE TX HILL COUNTRY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very
large hail and severe wind gusts may occur Monday across parts of
south-central Texas. Other strong to severe thunderstorms appear
possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower
Mississippi Valley and Southeast, as well as southern Virginia into
the Carolinas.

...Central/East/South TX...Arklatex...
Expectation is for a weakening cold front to extend from the Edwards
Plateau through southeast TX early Monday morning. Some isolated
showers will likely be ongoing, particularly across central and east
TX, but any thunderstorms associated with Sunday night's activity
are forecast to be across the Lower MS Valley. Any additional
southward progress of the front throughout the day is expected to be
minimal, with at least modest low-level moisture beginning to return
northward Monday afternoon. Southerly/southwesterly low-level flow
across this frontal zone is not expected to be particularly strong,
but persistent isentropic ascent may contribute isolated
thunderstorms throughout the day across north-central/northeast TX
into the Arklatex. Steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate
mid-level flow will contribute to an environment that supports hail
with the strongest storms. This hail threat will persist through the
evening and overnight as the low-level flow gradually strengthens.

Guidance is in good agreement that a low-amplitude shortwave trough
will move across northern Mexico and into the TX Hill Country late
Monday night/early Tuesday. As ascent attendant to this shortwave
spreads eastward, it should augment ongoing convergence along the
front as well as strengthen the southwesterly low-level flow to
support additional thunderstorm development across the Edwards
Plateau/TX Hill Country. Forecast hodographs show modest low-level
veering transitioning to long and straight character in the
mid-levels. This type of wind field coupled with steep mid-level
lapse rates suggests supercells capable of large to isolated very
large hail. Strong water-loaded downbursts and a tornado or two are
also possible.

...Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast...  
Showers and thunderstorms, remnant from activity Sunday night/early
Monday morning, will likely be ongoing from southern LA into the
central Gulf Coast. A damaging wind gust or two could occur with
these storms.

A cold front is expected to gradually shift southward/southeastward
throughout the day, with some additional thunderstorm development
possible along this front. Much of the region will be south of the
stronger westerly flow aloft, but amply low-level moisture and
modest buoyancy could still result in updrafts strong enough to
produce water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging wind gusts.

...Southern Virginia into the Carolinas...
Modest low-level moisture will be in place ahead of a cold front
gradually moving southward across southern VA And the Carolinas on
Monday. Moderate to strong mid-level flow will persist throughout
the day, with some late afternoon/early evening strengthening on
this flow possible as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves through
the region. Ascent attendant to this shortwave will augment the lift
along the front, helping to foster thunderstorm development once the
air mass destabilizes. Instability will be modest, but
aforementioned strong mid-level flow should still result in robust
updrafts. A cluster/bowing line segment storm mode is anticipated,
with damaging wind gusts as the main severe threat.

..Mosier.. 05/09/2021

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Sun May 09 2021

Valid 091700Z - 101200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY...

Much of the previous forecast remains on track. Visible satellite
depicts clear skies along the West Coast, where continued
boundary-layer heating/mixing will promote RH dropping into the
15-20% range through the afternoon, as also suggested by the latest
guidance. Latest METAR observations also show 15-25 mph sustained
north-northwesterly surface winds ongoing across portions of the
Sacramento Valley. These stronger surface winds are expected to
continue through the period given persistent northwesterly mid-level
flow overspreading northern California, hence the maintenance of the
Elevated/Critical fire weather highlights.

Widespread high-end Elevated conditions are still expected across
portions of the Lower Colorado River Valley this afternoon. Latest
guidance consensus depicts multiple areas that will be susceptible
to at least locally Critical overlapping surface winds/RH by
afternoon peak heating. The relatively patchy nature of Critical
meteorological conditions and overall lack of widespread ERCs
exceeding climatological average preclude Critical highlights.

Southwesterly surface winds and RH are expected to reach Elevated
criteria across portions of the Carolinas later this afternoon. The
primary mitigating factor for introducing Elevated highlights
continues to be the questionable receptiveness of fuels to fire
spread given recent rainfall. Nonetheless, at least localized
wildfire-spread potential will exist wherever fuel beds have
sufficiently dried.

..Squitieri.. 05/09/2021

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CDT Sun May 09 2021/

...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough positioned over the Northern Rockies will
elongate and become quasi-stationary, resulting in a zonal flow
pattern over much of the central and eastern CONUS, while parts of
the West Coast remain under northwesterly flow aloft. Mid-level flow
throughout this regime will be somewhat enhanced (40-50 kt), with
some strengthening of the flow expected in the West as a jet streak
enters the region. At the surface, a cold front will surge
southeast, from the Southern Plains into the lower Mississippi
Valley. Farther west, relatively clear/dry conditions are expected
to persist.

...Northern California...
Diurnal heating/mixing processes should result in sustained surface
winds of 20 mph, gusting to 25-30 mph (particularly in
terrain-favored regions). Meanwhile, RH values should fall into the
teens amid dry/receptive fuels, resulting in critical fire-weather
potential during the late morning into the afternoon hours. Elevated
fire-weather conditions can be expected in proximity to the critical
area, delineated by slightly weaker surface winds and higher RH
values.

...Southwest...
A broad region of elevated fire-weather conditions should develop as
the marginally enhanced flow aloft mixes toward the surface during
the afternoon. Widespread sustained winds of 10-20 mph can be
expected, with locally higher gusts. RH value will vary across the
region, with relatively higher RH values found across portions of
central Arizona/New Mexico compared to adjacent areas. Fuels remain
receptive to large-fire spread amid prolonged drought conditions.
Locally critical fire-weather conditions are certainly possible, but
this potential appears too localized to include any additional
highlights at this time.

...Parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas/Virginia...
Breezy southerly winds should develop across the region in advance
of the approaching cold front. Despite southerly low-level flow
trajectories, RH values may approach critical thresholds at least
briefly during the afternoon, but these conditions will likely be
too localized/transient to include an elevated area at this time.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CDT Sun May 09 2021

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ARIZONA INTO
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...

The main change made for the 17Z Day 2 update was to expand the
Critical area across central New Mexico into parts of eastern
Arizona and southern New Mexico, where latest guidance consensus has
continued to trend upward in wind speeds. Otherwise, widespread
5-15% RH is still expected during the afternoon across much of the
Colorado River Basin. Across the Sacramento into the San Joaquin
Valleys in northern California, latest guidance continues to show
deep-layer northerly flow supporting 20+ mph sustained northerly
surface winds coinciding with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. Please
see the previous forecast below for additional details.

..Squitieri.. 05/09/2021

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0127 AM CDT Sun May 09 2021/

...Synopsis...
The upper-level trough and zonal flow pattern is expected to remain
anchored over the central/eastern CONUS, along with moderately
enhanced northwesterly flow situated along the West Coast. Despite
the quasi-stationary pattern, flow aloft within this regime appears
to strengthen somewhat throughout the forecast period. This should
result in a slight uptick in surface winds as compared to Day 1, and
thus, critical fire-weather delineations have been added to each
highlighted region, in addition to converting 40% probabilities to
elevated areas.

...California...
A mid-level jet streak should be located over the region at the
start of the period, associated with enhanced 50-60 kt. This feature
will shift southeast through the day, resulting in weakening flow
aloft. However, winds should remain strong enough to result in
sustained winds of 20-30 mph, with locally higher gusts. Surface
flow appears to take on a more northwesterly/offshore trajectory,
which should result in slightly lower RH values, into the teens and
nearing single digits. Given these conditions amid dry/receptive
fuels, critical fire-weather conditions appear likely.

...Southwest...
An embedded mid-level short-wave trough should approach the region,
and bring with it a zone of enhanced mid-level flow. This should
result in widespread elevated fire-weather conditions characterized
by sustained westerly surface winds of 15-20 mph coincident with RH
values falling into the teens. Within this region, critical
fire-weather conditions are likely to develop where sustained
surface winds of 25-30 mph and RH values fall into the single
digits. The critical area has been confined to the most probable
overlap in the wind/RH/fuels combo, and thus may be subject to
further refinements in later outlooks.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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