No watches are valid as of Sun Feb 23 10:27:01 UTC 2025.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Feb 23 10:27:01 UTC 2025.
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida and coastal
Oregon/Washington on Monday. No severe thunderstorms are expected.
...Synopsis...
A positively tilted trough will amplify as it moves from South Texas
to the Florida Peninsula on Monday. As this occurs, the surface low
already present over the Gulf will deepen somewhat during the day
and eventually advance east across the Panhandle and into the
western Atlantic by 12Z Tuesday. Farther west, a strong mid-level
jet streak and associated strong surface low will approach the
Pacific Northwest coast with a cold front advancing inland on Monday
evening/Monday night.
...South Florida and the Florida Keys...
A large MCS will likely be ongoing across the eastern Gulf at the
beginning of the period with a some strong to potentially severe
thunderstorms ongoing across the open water. However, this MCS will
weaken as it moves east into lesser instability across and near the
Florida Peninsula. Some guidance, most notably the 00Z HRRR,
maintains greater instability across the Keys and far south Florida.
This could result in an isolated damaging wind gust or even a
localized tornado threat across south Florida. However, the majority
of guidance keeps instability well offshore with the strongest
storms even southwest of the Keys. If a greater instability solution
does occur across south Florida, a Marginal risk may be needed in
later outlooks, but the probability of that solution remains too low
for probabilities at this time.
...Northwest...
A very strong wind field will be present on Monday as a ~985 mb
surface low moves northeast off the coast. Therefore, some stronger
wind gusts may be possible with any convection in the region. Weak
instability depicted by forecast soundings in the area would
indicate a relatively low threat of convectively induced severe wind
gusts. However, some convective enhancement of already strong
synoptic flow may be possible, particularly along the coast.
..Bentley.. 02/23/2025
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday.
...Discussion...
Mostly zonal flow aloft will be present across the CONUS on Tuesday
with a dry airmass in place as a surface low moves off the east
coast of Florida amid northerly flow across much of the Southeast
into the central and eastern Gulf. Later in the period, some
southerly flow will resume across the western Gulf, but moisture
will remain very shallow with no instability present. Given this dry
environment across much of the CONUS, no thunderstorms are
anticipated on Tuesday.
..Bentley.. 02/23/2025
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025
Valid 261200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Moisture will start to advance inland across Texas on Wednesday/D4,
but will be shunted into the Gulf on Thursday as a cold front
advances south. This will result in minimal thunderstorm activity
for much of the extended forecast period. By Sunday/D8 and beyond,
most extended range forecast guidance suggests significant moisture
recovery across the Gulf and some inland moisture intrusion across
the Southern Plains and Southeast which will likely increase
thunderstorm and severe weather potential. However, until that time,
thunderstorm and severe weather potential remains low due to the
lack of sufficient instability.
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Warm and dry downslope winds are forecast in the lee of the
Sacramento and Sandia Manzano mountains of eastern New Mexico, with
winds up to 20 MPH and relative humidity values dropping below 15%.
Across portions of eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle,
winds could reach as high as 25-30 MPH with relative humidity below
20%. However, current ERC fuels guidance across both regions
suggests there is little support for wildfire ignition and spread,
especially with some recent wetting rainfall across portions of
Wyoming and Nebraska in the last 5 days. Given the lack of
supportive fuels, no fire-weather highlights will be introduced at
this time.
..Halbert.. 02/23/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Strong surface winds are forecast on Monday across portions of the
Central and Northern Plains, reaching 25-30 MPH in the ensemble mean
over portions of Nebraska and South Dakota. However, relative
humidity values are forecast to remain at or above 20%, and ERC
fuels guidance suggests that fuels are not currently receptive to
wildfire ignition and spread at this time. Given these limiting
factors, no fire-weather highlights will be introduced into the
forecast.
..Halbert.. 02/23/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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