Fire Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
A split flow regime will develop over the U.S. throughout the day
with a belt of northwesterly flow in the Midwest and subtropical
westerlies at lower latitudes. No widespread areas of Elevated
fire-weather conditions are expected, although some localized gusty
and dry conditions may develop in portions of the Appalachians and
High Plains.

...Ohio River Valley southward through western NC and SC...
As a cold front continues to push southeastward through the East
Coast and FL Peninsula, locally stronger post-frontal surface winds
could yield Elevated fire-weather conditions in regions of locally
drier fuels. The lowest relative humidities are expected from the
Ohio River Valley southward through western NC and SC along the
eastern slopes of the Appalachians. Low confidence exists regarding
the overlap of strongest surface winds, drier conditions, and
receptive fuels, precluding any Elevated areas at this time.

...Southern High Plains...
The surface pattern across the Southern High Plains will be
influenced by steady, post-frontal high pressure along the Gulf
Coast and a developing, mid-level cutoff low over the Four Corners
region. This will yield gradual moisture return across the Southern
Plains, bounded to the west by drier southwesterly flow. Locally
windy (around 15+ mph) and dry (relative humidities around 20-25
percent) conditions may develop across portions of the TX/OK
Panhandles. Some precipitation has occurred across the region in the
last few days, but locally drier fuels may support pockets of
heightened fire-weather conditions on Tuesday afternoon.

..Flournoy.. 03/19/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...Synopsis...
A split-flow regime will support separate regions of possible
fire-weather conditions on Wednesday. Elevated fire-weather
conditions are possible across portions of the southeastern NM and
West TX on Wednesday afternoon. Localized areas of dry, windy
conditions are also possible across the Mid-Atlantic, although lower
confidence in fuel levels currently precludes any Elevated areas.

...Southeastern NM and West TX...
An initial cutoff low is expected to shift eastward throughout the
day on Wednesday, yielding westerly flow aloft and a deepening
surface cyclone near the NM/TX border. This will yield prolonged
westerly surface flow up to around 15-20 mph and relative humidities
dropping to around 15 percent. Current guidance suggests fuels are
not at critical levels, but much of the region has not measured any
precipitation in the last two weeks. Predictability is slightly
lower due to the nature of the cutoff low and timing of the
eastward-ejecting trough. However, confidence is sufficient to
introduce an Elevated area representing the location of driest and
windiest conditions on Wednesday afternoon.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Gusty, post-frontal conditions will persist throughout the day on
Wednesday across the Mid-Atlantic. The driest conditions are
currently expected in central VA, where relative humidities around
25-30 percent are possible amidst surface winds of 10-15 mph.
Pockets of drier fuels may support locally higher fire-weather
conditions, but relatively low confidence precludes an Elevated area
at this time.

..Flournoy.. 03/19/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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