Fire Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 AM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023

Valid 011700Z - 021200Z


The forecast remains on track and no changes were necessary. Some
elevated conditions are already present across southeast Colorado
and vicinity. Sunny skies will allow additional warming and deep
mixing through the afternoon with critical conditions likely
developing by 19-20Z.

..Bentley.. 04/01/2023

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023/

A belt of strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the Pacific
Northwest and Northern Rockies on Saturday as an embedded shortwave
moves eastward across Arizona and into New Mexico. East of the
Rockies, lee troughing will develop in response with increased south
to southwesterly flow across the Central and Southern High Plains
across a very dry post-frontal air mass. Elevated to Critical fire
weather will be possible. Dry conditions will extend further south
and east but lighter winds will preclude the need for expansion of
any areas.

...Eastern CO, Northeastern NM, northwest TX, western OK
The Critical area was maintained with this update. HREF guidance
still shows the highest conditional probability of Critical
conditions across far southeastern Colorado, northeastern New
Mexico, west Texas, and the Oklahoma Panhandle. Confidence in
relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent within this
region is high. Some question remains in the extent of the stronger
winds. As such, ensemble guidance was leveraged to narrow down the
most likely region of dry/windy overlap with the driest fuels. It is
possible that locally Critical fire weather conditions may occur
within the broader Elevated region. Minor adjustments were made to
expand the Elevated area across the eastern edge further into
Oklahoma and Texas.

...Far West Texas near Stockton Plateau and Edwards Plateau...
Localized Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will be
possible across the Stockton and Edwards Plateau Saturday afternoon.
Given the localized and largely terrain driven nature of any
Critical conditions, no area was included with this update. However
areas of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will be
possible. Drying fuels in this region will likely support fire

...Please see for graphic product...

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